Has the Auto Finance Skip Tracing business gone the way of the Auto Repo business?
It's brutal out there.
We always relied on Lenders making bad loans and then not doing a very good job on finding their skips, but that's changed. The gravy is gone.
Skip Companies- If you are not working in an environment where you can measure and manage your business every minute of every day, you can fail. If you fail, your clients fail, but I guess that doesn't really matter to you cause you failed.
Are Lenders looking as closely as they can at what Skip companies they hire; I doubt it. Can their Skip Companies go toes up, damn straight they can, and trust me, they will.
Attn Lenders: Please start lending money, and please start taking some risk, and please take a closer look at who you do business with. If your Skip Company has lost four of its five biggest clients in the past few months, there is a problem. If you google your skip companies name followed by the word "LAWSUIT" and there is more than one page of results, you are a sitting duck.
C'mon, there are people out there who need loans and you are all overstaffed and you can handle it. You may need masterQueue to help organize your collection department, but you know your people's Queue sizes are way down, and you have the people to handle the deals, so dont wait for the paper buyers to tell you its coming, force the issue, tell them you can handle it.
Of course, come of those skips will fall through the cracks, but you will make so much off the deals that pay you know that it wont matter, and our industry needs some bread crumbs.
EVERYONE will win.
Showing posts with label skip tracing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label skip tracing. Show all posts
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
How about a positive spin on things for a change...
I privately met with several of the largest repossession companies last summer and we brought in a PR Person to discuss some of the strategies involved in mounting a positive PR campaign around our industry. This person had successfully raised public awareness for industries that faced similar challenges, not quite as difficult, but I feel she can do the job, and she has no connection to anyone, and being located in the capital of the largest regulated state in the country, she may be in the right place.
Her ideas included:
Integrated marketing plans
Key Messages/Logo/Business System and Brand Developments
Media outreach
Media and presentation skills training
Advertising and media buys
Community outreach and public involvement
Web
Email/ VIP outreach list
Email blasts, special programs, etc
I’m running a skip company; Find John Doe, and getting ready to launch a software to hopefully help improve our industry, masterQueue by Intellaegis, so my time is limited at best, but I would participate on a board level if we could form an interest list and then a board and then select a leader to oversee this process.
Forget about the associations running this, if they wanted to do something they would have acted years ago and getting them to work together seems to be a challenge in itself. You need an independent board of entrepreneurs who can represent the industry, and I’d say the qualifications would be:
10 years exp in the repo industry
Verifiable personal experience repossessing cars themselves in the field, and I’m not talking about a ride along
Running a business in this industry that currently generates at least $1m in annual revenue
I’d also include 1-2 client members and I’d invite Kevin as a media rep
1 rep from each association responsible for being the liaison for their association and responsible for collecting dues to fund this program and sharing info to/from their members- and non assoc members would have a liaison for the companies not in associations
A paid independent admin to handle the day to day and budget
email me privately if you are interested in participating:
jlewis@findjohndoe.com
John Lewis
Her ideas included:
Integrated marketing plans
Key Messages/Logo/Business System and Brand Developments
Media outreach
Media and presentation skills training
Advertising and media buys
Community outreach and public involvement
Web
Email/ VIP outreach list
Email blasts, special programs, etc
I’m running a skip company; Find John Doe, and getting ready to launch a software to hopefully help improve our industry, masterQueue by Intellaegis, so my time is limited at best, but I would participate on a board level if we could form an interest list and then a board and then select a leader to oversee this process.
Forget about the associations running this, if they wanted to do something they would have acted years ago and getting them to work together seems to be a challenge in itself. You need an independent board of entrepreneurs who can represent the industry, and I’d say the qualifications would be:
10 years exp in the repo industry
Verifiable personal experience repossessing cars themselves in the field, and I’m not talking about a ride along
Running a business in this industry that currently generates at least $1m in annual revenue
I’d also include 1-2 client members and I’d invite Kevin as a media rep
1 rep from each association responsible for being the liaison for their association and responsible for collecting dues to fund this program and sharing info to/from their members- and non assoc members would have a liaison for the companies not in associations
A paid independent admin to handle the day to day and budget
email me privately if you are interested in participating:
jlewis@findjohndoe.com
John Lewis
Monday, September 27, 2010
LPR Technology
A person posted a question on Linkedin - asking for opinions on dual assigning a repo assignment to two companies at once. I then raised the question about LPR (License Plate Recognition) and the fact it seems to go unnoticed that this also creates double assignments.
The LPR process puts a camera in a vehicle and hundreds or thousands of license plates are scanned each night. Lenders upload lists of the license plates on cars they are looking for and when an LPR camera spots a unit the Lender is looking for, each of the 3 companies with the camera's has a different process they follow, and most, if not all, allow a Lender to have one of their accounts double assigned to more than one repo company at a time- a deadly practice. The problem could be eliminated if the LPR companies required the Lenders to become accountable for each assignment as most of these accounts are already assigned to a repo company when the Lender gives the list of wanted cars to the LPR company, who then distributes the cameras and coordinates the assignment process when a camera spots a unit.
The owner of a LPR company posted a comment to explain LPR, however the same question remains. Here is his comment and my comment that followed - I think this is a challenge the repo industry faces with the advent of LPR
Here is a comment from Scott Jackson, owner of MV Track:
Scott Jackson • "The MVTRAC system is a real-time alert, so the moment an ALPR unit scans a plate the alert goes off and the agent can print an assignment. We do not view it as a "double assignment" In the early stages of research and development, lender white-board sessions brought this scenario up:
Agent #1 is assigned the account by the lender by fax or database and have been running the addresses for 14 days. Day 15, the VIN hits the MVTRAC systems Nationwide and Agent#2 drives by the vehicle which happens to be located at an originally assigned address assigned to Agent #1 and at that very moment, Agent #1 happens to be at the address as well. In this scenario, Agent #1 has the assignment and Agent #2 can print the assignment after his ALPR system hits on it generates a repossession order.
In this scenario, most would say it's a "Double-Assignment" Technology has definitely changed the playing field for us all. Statistically, the above scenario, the odds of it happening are very-very high (but of course it is still possible) You see, Agent #2 is unaware of the assignment, up until the very moment his system hits on the plate. Agent #1 would most certainly be in the process of recovering the vehicle and Agent #2 would see this, or Agent #1 would be down the street setting up for the recovery if it took some planning.
In the end, this is the scenario for a "double-assignment" with MVTRAC ALPR systems, which in the end comes down to the professionalism of the agents because the danger here is Recovery Agents "fighting" or "arguing", some altercation over the assignment and the recovery. MVTRAC's MVRecovery division maintains an approved vendor list of over 530 Recovery Agencies and as many readers here know, the packet is over 30 pages and very extensive. We're also working developing a Recovery Industry University for the individual agents to attend and become certified, that will cover this scenario and a quite a few more. Collectively, with greater awareness of the challenges of new technology, coupled with professionalism and continuing education, the Recovery Industry will evolve and develop further.........and again...... "
Here is my response...
Once LPR gets dialed and risks are reduced, AND when communication between ALL affected parties improves, it will have an even larger positive impact.
Two agents fighting over a repo is the exact situation our agents are running in to when our skip company, Find John Doe, assigns a locate. It has happened more than a few times , especially in L.A. Multiply that by the potential for a 3rd or 4th LPR Company to get an assignment from a lender …
In one actual case, we gave our agent a locate in a remote area, the unit didn’t show and our agent didn’t want to make a second trip, so they kicked it in. The guy didn’t even know his car was repo’d, so it was awkward, but could have been dangerous if the debtor was confrontational.
The biggest problems will happen when the debtor comes out and stops either the original agent or the LPR agent with a threat and the agent leaves without the unit. Later that night, the second agent spots the unit, and having no idea of the prior confrontation, they begin the repo and this time the debtor may be waiting with their shotgun. This is EXACTLY how my guys were killed several years ago.
Accidents will happen and when they do and there is an injury of some form, lawyers get involved. A review of large suits has proven that when something happens and there is accountability, i.e "In the early stages of research and development, lender white-board sessions brought this scenario up", the Punitive $ add up fast.
There is no doubt LPR is a powerful tool, however, until something really bad happens and a Lender is held accountable, my guess is not much will change. The scary thing is it still may not change, as history dictates with the explosion of the Forwarding model. The issues caused by using inexpensive, sub-professional repo agents to save a buck. i.e. several deaths and injuries caused by Forwarders using the cheapest guy they can find and Lenders turning their head because the contract passes on liability to the Forwarder is well documented, and it still goes on.
The decision to change the current LPR process of double assigning will be based on who is ultimately responsible when something really bad happens? Is it the lender for assigning a plate when they know that almost always it’s a double assignment, or the LPR company for not insuring their agents are protected from double assignments? It certainly can't be the agent in the field’s fault, unless there is something I am missing?
BTW, I like the alert going off concept and the agent being able to immediately take the car idea, but it would be nice if you could also assure that agent that already has his life on the line just by doing the job he does, that he doesn't have a second repo man pulling up when he's in the middle of hooking up, or worse, have a second repo man working "his deal" that already has had a confrontation with the debtor he's about to hook, or kick in.
This is where clients should get involved as I believe that they have the ultimate accountability on this, and if they're passing that liability to the LPR company through some language in a contract, I think LPR companies need to really work to get on top of this before it comes back on an agent in the field. LPR companies have the data, you hold the cards, so it shouldn’t be that hard to tell a Lender they cant risk people's lives and double assign deals. Before LPR, some Lenders double assigned deals, they got in trouble ,and then they stopped. Technology and the volume it will drive will only increase the odds of a problem, so why is it OK now?
If the contract says the LPR company agrees to defend and hold the Lender harmless, that's not a good thing as the LPR company didn't double assign it, the lender did. I’m curious to know how that part works Scott, who is responsible?
The LPR process puts a camera in a vehicle and hundreds or thousands of license plates are scanned each night. Lenders upload lists of the license plates on cars they are looking for and when an LPR camera spots a unit the Lender is looking for, each of the 3 companies with the camera's has a different process they follow, and most, if not all, allow a Lender to have one of their accounts double assigned to more than one repo company at a time- a deadly practice. The problem could be eliminated if the LPR companies required the Lenders to become accountable for each assignment as most of these accounts are already assigned to a repo company when the Lender gives the list of wanted cars to the LPR company, who then distributes the cameras and coordinates the assignment process when a camera spots a unit.
The owner of a LPR company posted a comment to explain LPR, however the same question remains. Here is his comment and my comment that followed - I think this is a challenge the repo industry faces with the advent of LPR
Here is a comment from Scott Jackson, owner of MV Track:
Scott Jackson • "The MVTRAC system is a real-time alert, so the moment an ALPR unit scans a plate the alert goes off and the agent can print an assignment. We do not view it as a "double assignment" In the early stages of research and development, lender white-board sessions brought this scenario up:
Agent #1 is assigned the account by the lender by fax or database and have been running the addresses for 14 days. Day 15, the VIN hits the MVTRAC systems Nationwide and Agent#2 drives by the vehicle which happens to be located at an originally assigned address assigned to Agent #1 and at that very moment, Agent #1 happens to be at the address as well. In this scenario, Agent #1 has the assignment and Agent #2 can print the assignment after his ALPR system hits on it generates a repossession order.
In this scenario, most would say it's a "Double-Assignment" Technology has definitely changed the playing field for us all. Statistically, the above scenario, the odds of it happening are very-very high (but of course it is still possible) You see, Agent #2 is unaware of the assignment, up until the very moment his system hits on the plate. Agent #1 would most certainly be in the process of recovering the vehicle and Agent #2 would see this, or Agent #1 would be down the street setting up for the recovery if it took some planning.
In the end, this is the scenario for a "double-assignment" with MVTRAC ALPR systems, which in the end comes down to the professionalism of the agents because the danger here is Recovery Agents "fighting" or "arguing", some altercation over the assignment and the recovery. MVTRAC's MVRecovery division maintains an approved vendor list of over 530 Recovery Agencies and as many readers here know, the packet is over 30 pages and very extensive. We're also working developing a Recovery Industry University for the individual agents to attend and become certified, that will cover this scenario and a quite a few more. Collectively, with greater awareness of the challenges of new technology, coupled with professionalism and continuing education, the Recovery Industry will evolve and develop further.........and again...... "
Here is my response...
Once LPR gets dialed and risks are reduced, AND when communication between ALL affected parties improves, it will have an even larger positive impact.
Two agents fighting over a repo is the exact situation our agents are running in to when our skip company, Find John Doe, assigns a locate. It has happened more than a few times , especially in L.A. Multiply that by the potential for a 3rd or 4th LPR Company to get an assignment from a lender …
In one actual case, we gave our agent a locate in a remote area, the unit didn’t show and our agent didn’t want to make a second trip, so they kicked it in. The guy didn’t even know his car was repo’d, so it was awkward, but could have been dangerous if the debtor was confrontational.
The biggest problems will happen when the debtor comes out and stops either the original agent or the LPR agent with a threat and the agent leaves without the unit. Later that night, the second agent spots the unit, and having no idea of the prior confrontation, they begin the repo and this time the debtor may be waiting with their shotgun. This is EXACTLY how my guys were killed several years ago.
Accidents will happen and when they do and there is an injury of some form, lawyers get involved. A review of large suits has proven that when something happens and there is accountability, i.e "In the early stages of research and development, lender white-board sessions brought this scenario up", the Punitive $ add up fast.
There is no doubt LPR is a powerful tool, however, until something really bad happens and a Lender is held accountable, my guess is not much will change. The scary thing is it still may not change, as history dictates with the explosion of the Forwarding model. The issues caused by using inexpensive, sub-professional repo agents to save a buck. i.e. several deaths and injuries caused by Forwarders using the cheapest guy they can find and Lenders turning their head because the contract passes on liability to the Forwarder is well documented, and it still goes on.
The decision to change the current LPR process of double assigning will be based on who is ultimately responsible when something really bad happens? Is it the lender for assigning a plate when they know that almost always it’s a double assignment, or the LPR company for not insuring their agents are protected from double assignments? It certainly can't be the agent in the field’s fault, unless there is something I am missing?
BTW, I like the alert going off concept and the agent being able to immediately take the car idea, but it would be nice if you could also assure that agent that already has his life on the line just by doing the job he does, that he doesn't have a second repo man pulling up when he's in the middle of hooking up, or worse, have a second repo man working "his deal" that already has had a confrontation with the debtor he's about to hook, or kick in.
This is where clients should get involved as I believe that they have the ultimate accountability on this, and if they're passing that liability to the LPR company through some language in a contract, I think LPR companies need to really work to get on top of this before it comes back on an agent in the field. LPR companies have the data, you hold the cards, so it shouldn’t be that hard to tell a Lender they cant risk people's lives and double assign deals. Before LPR, some Lenders double assigned deals, they got in trouble ,and then they stopped. Technology and the volume it will drive will only increase the odds of a problem, so why is it OK now?
If the contract says the LPR company agrees to defend and hold the Lender harmless, that's not a good thing as the LPR company didn't double assign it, the lender did. I’m curious to know how that part works Scott, who is responsible?
Thursday, September 2, 2010
The information age
Some people call it Public Records, some call it Data, and in our business we call it a lead.
I call it information.
In the current state of the skip tracing industry, we have a tremendous amount of information at our fingertips.
Since we live in the Information Age, we should always be striving to find better ways to process and use available information to make better decisions.
In the old days, I would get so excited when someone went to Battle Mountain, or any remote location, and they brought me back a local phone book. Suddenly, I had the information I needed, at my fingertips, to crack a tough case. I had a book of leads.
The amount of data available on people these days is amazing. It's the closest thing we've seen to Big Brother.
What's important is to find a way to take that information, streamline the identification of the most relevant data that's available through Public Records, which includes everything about a person that's available on the Internet, and put that into a format that can improve the process of skip tracing.
That's skip tracing in 2010.
I call it information.
In the current state of the skip tracing industry, we have a tremendous amount of information at our fingertips.
Since we live in the Information Age, we should always be striving to find better ways to process and use available information to make better decisions.
In the old days, I would get so excited when someone went to Battle Mountain, or any remote location, and they brought me back a local phone book. Suddenly, I had the information I needed, at my fingertips, to crack a tough case. I had a book of leads.
The amount of data available on people these days is amazing. It's the closest thing we've seen to Big Brother.
What's important is to find a way to take that information, streamline the identification of the most relevant data that's available through Public Records, which includes everything about a person that's available on the Internet, and put that into a format that can improve the process of skip tracing.
That's skip tracing in 2010.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
How was your weekend?
When building a relationship with another person at a company you do business with, the temptation or opportunity to move that relationship beyond a business relationship can occur. It can be initiated mutually, or by one side when there is something that side perceives they will gain. Schmoozing is what best describes this form of communication. The definition of Schmooze is:
Main Entry: Schmooze
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): schmoozed or shmoozed; schmooz·ing or shmooz·ing
Etymology: Yiddish shmuesn, from schmues talk, from Hebrew shĕmu'ōth news, rumor
Date: 1884
intransitive verb : to converse informally : chat; also : to chat in a friendly and persuasive manner especially so as to gain favor, business, or connections transitive verb : to engage in schmoozing with
— schmooz·er \ˈshmü-zər\ noun
A solid business relationship is built when each side has an equal amount to gain from the relationship, and when one side gains an advantage, problems start, and the relationship will usually falter.
At a high level, executives get to know each other outside work all the time. Many companies frown on this, and while I agree with the initial perception of a conflict of interest, I can attest that some of the strongest and most valuable business relationships I've formed have been when both companies provided equal value to each other, and when the executive level staff spent enough time together so they built a trust of each other, knowing when a problem occurred, they each could fall back on the relationship they'd built to move past the issues, getting the business relationship back on track. If a catastrophic problem happened, the business relationship may be fractured, but the business bond these individuals had formed would usually transcend the companies they owned or worked for, and their paths would again cross as a result of the individual bond they'd built. The other component to this relationship is talent, allowing a bond to form by two peers with common interests and solid values, and their ability to solve issues and always strive to move their organizations forward without compromising their integrity.
At a staffing level, the playing field is similar, yet the need to communicate more frequently and the inexperience of the staff members in situations like these can make the situations that may arise a bit trickier.
How much small talk is too much? What do you do when the relationship moves from purely business and an innocent comment like "how was your weekend?" to "will you be my Facebook friend?", or "we should get together sometime."
As an employer, those last two scenarios can be seen as harmless by some, but in many cases they can be the beginning of the end for what the Executives thought was a solid business relationship. If my employee becomes friends with your employee will that influence their business decisions? If they're sleeping together and then one pulls the plug, will that affect my business relationship I've built on a high level with a client who sees value in our product or services? Is one of those people capable of having a hidden agenda that could really cause problems?
In thirty plus years of working in offices, I've learned some lessons the hard way, and my philosophy nowadays is to keep my business and personal life as separate as possible. I encourage our employees to do the same. I love hearing my people did a great job, and I know when you do enough great jobs you'll start getting closer to a client, or vice versa, as it will influence the amount of work that flows between two companies. I'd always prefer to be judged on what I do, and not on what I said I could do, or in a way which could be perceived as a conflict of interest in a manner which could affect my relationship with my employer, my client, or my company.
So, what do you do when a relationship that was friendly starts getting too friendly?
Find easy ways to identify these situations and without offending the other person, drop hints that hopefully they will understand over time:
1. Find things to say when the conversation goes in the wrong direction, i.e.
A) "I've got a call coming in on the other line, can I get back to you?"
B) "Can you hang on a minute?"
Place hand over mouthpiece on phone and say
"Just a minute"
Remove hand and say:
"Sorry about that, can I give you a call back later, I've gotta run.."
C) If my wife heard you talking like that I'm not sure who would be in more trouble, you or me.
OK, just kidding about the last one, but you get the idea. Find ways to catch the tone going the wrong direction early and find a way to move on. Don't avoid the person, keep consistent with your desire to be friendly and occasionally chat on an impersonal level, but at all costs, avoid getting into your personal lives other than you have a great family or you are happily single or whatever. I tell my people to stay away from the details or the next thing you know you will be sitting in someone's office listening to something you don't want other people to hear as the conflict of interest or the content of your conversation will clearly indicate this got way beyond the point of "how was your weekend?". That can cause more problems than you want to deal with at your job, and how would you feel if the other person got fired and you initiated the conversation, or you played along.
Business is business, and your ability to develop a reputation for delivering a product or service will take you places in your career. If you can do that while having a little personality, being a nice person with good morals, you will succeed in business. By not crossing the business to personal line, you will be ahead of the game. When it happens and you didn't initiate it, be prepared to control the situation with the fine art of bringing it back to business when it crosses the line. This is a trait you want in your tool box and it will help carry you a long way in your road to personal success in your business career.
Main Entry: Schmooze
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): schmoozed or shmoozed; schmooz·ing or shmooz·ing
Etymology: Yiddish shmuesn, from schmues talk, from Hebrew shĕmu'ōth news, rumor
Date: 1884
intransitive verb : to converse informally : chat; also : to chat in a friendly and persuasive manner especially so as to gain favor, business, or connections transitive verb : to engage in schmoozing with
— schmooz·er \ˈshmü-zər\ noun
A solid business relationship is built when each side has an equal amount to gain from the relationship, and when one side gains an advantage, problems start, and the relationship will usually falter.
At a high level, executives get to know each other outside work all the time. Many companies frown on this, and while I agree with the initial perception of a conflict of interest, I can attest that some of the strongest and most valuable business relationships I've formed have been when both companies provided equal value to each other, and when the executive level staff spent enough time together so they built a trust of each other, knowing when a problem occurred, they each could fall back on the relationship they'd built to move past the issues, getting the business relationship back on track. If a catastrophic problem happened, the business relationship may be fractured, but the business bond these individuals had formed would usually transcend the companies they owned or worked for, and their paths would again cross as a result of the individual bond they'd built. The other component to this relationship is talent, allowing a bond to form by two peers with common interests and solid values, and their ability to solve issues and always strive to move their organizations forward without compromising their integrity.
At a staffing level, the playing field is similar, yet the need to communicate more frequently and the inexperience of the staff members in situations like these can make the situations that may arise a bit trickier.
How much small talk is too much? What do you do when the relationship moves from purely business and an innocent comment like "how was your weekend?" to "will you be my Facebook friend?", or "we should get together sometime."
As an employer, those last two scenarios can be seen as harmless by some, but in many cases they can be the beginning of the end for what the Executives thought was a solid business relationship. If my employee becomes friends with your employee will that influence their business decisions? If they're sleeping together and then one pulls the plug, will that affect my business relationship I've built on a high level with a client who sees value in our product or services? Is one of those people capable of having a hidden agenda that could really cause problems?
In thirty plus years of working in offices, I've learned some lessons the hard way, and my philosophy nowadays is to keep my business and personal life as separate as possible. I encourage our employees to do the same. I love hearing my people did a great job, and I know when you do enough great jobs you'll start getting closer to a client, or vice versa, as it will influence the amount of work that flows between two companies. I'd always prefer to be judged on what I do, and not on what I said I could do, or in a way which could be perceived as a conflict of interest in a manner which could affect my relationship with my employer, my client, or my company.
So, what do you do when a relationship that was friendly starts getting too friendly?
Find easy ways to identify these situations and without offending the other person, drop hints that hopefully they will understand over time:
1. Find things to say when the conversation goes in the wrong direction, i.e.
A) "I've got a call coming in on the other line, can I get back to you?"
B) "Can you hang on a minute?"
Place hand over mouthpiece on phone and say
"Just a minute"
Remove hand and say:
"Sorry about that, can I give you a call back later, I've gotta run.."
C) If my wife heard you talking like that I'm not sure who would be in more trouble, you or me.
OK, just kidding about the last one, but you get the idea. Find ways to catch the tone going the wrong direction early and find a way to move on. Don't avoid the person, keep consistent with your desire to be friendly and occasionally chat on an impersonal level, but at all costs, avoid getting into your personal lives other than you have a great family or you are happily single or whatever. I tell my people to stay away from the details or the next thing you know you will be sitting in someone's office listening to something you don't want other people to hear as the conflict of interest or the content of your conversation will clearly indicate this got way beyond the point of "how was your weekend?". That can cause more problems than you want to deal with at your job, and how would you feel if the other person got fired and you initiated the conversation, or you played along.
Business is business, and your ability to develop a reputation for delivering a product or service will take you places in your career. If you can do that while having a little personality, being a nice person with good morals, you will succeed in business. By not crossing the business to personal line, you will be ahead of the game. When it happens and you didn't initiate it, be prepared to control the situation with the fine art of bringing it back to business when it crosses the line. This is a trait you want in your tool box and it will help carry you a long way in your road to personal success in your business career.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Why Forwarding?
I just received this note from a TFA member about the state of the forwarding business.
Having helped create this industry within our industry, its a subject I am passionate about, as you can tell by some of my other blogs. He raises some good points and I've copied his letter below for your reference.
I agree with most of what he says, but I disagree with his statement that the reason lenders went to Forwarders was gouging? Maybe on a few occasions, as is the case with any industry, but lenders are paying more now for a managed process, so it is doubtful to me that it was a cost issue, or a gouging issue.
I witnessed first hand the transformation of Chrysler Credit from a hundred or so branch company to a 3-4 call center company. That is one reason lenders went to forwarders as it became difficult for these companies to manage so many relationships after they went to a national call center model. It killed the days of getting to know your local repo man. When I was a collector in the Sacramento branch, and a collection manager in Long Beach and Cerritos for Chrysler Credit, I knew all the agents in town, and I knew who to use, and who not to use. Being the president of some association didn't automatically qualify a repo company as being good in my book back then, or even now. I respect those who serve the industry, but for me the bottom line is always the bottom line, and that's performance.
Good luck knowing your local Wyoming repo man if your at a call center in Dallas. Relationships are built on trust, and that's tough when you've never even met the person who owns the repo company. Relationships as difficult as the one between a lender and a repo company are more complex than most business relationships, and in many ways, they're built on trust and hard work. When we brought on a new lender to handle their forwarding back in the 90s, each of those relationships had evolved over years of trust being built.
IMO, the second reason forwarding became common was inexperience. How many clients had departments or people managing the repo process on a national basis? At Chrysler, the agents you approved was a decision made at the branch level back then. We were successful at ARS with our first client in 1993-94, VW credit, for this exact reason. We had started Skipbusters in 1988 and for the prior six years, we'd been managing a group of 300 or so agents, and believe me, it wasn't easy getting the number whittled down from 2000 to 300 of the best agents in the country. We were repossessors and we understood that business, so it was easier to manage, but it took six years to get it right. We'd also been skip tracing and managing the VW skip repo's for several years and we had built trust with them.
Back then we charged a reasonable fee of $75 per assignment, and the next reason lenders outsourced this process is the cost was less, and by cost in the VW example, it was driven by actual cost and also productivity gains we showed over the results they were getting before they were using ARS, so their bottom line improved. If more lenders looked at "cost" as a bottom line number and not a line item repo expense, we wouldnt be in this mess. It still blows my mind the same effort is expected and the same price per repo is paid for a car worth $1500 as one worth $50K. That certainly doesnt make sense for a finance company, but that's the way it is, and that's another topic for another blog. I could also ask why a client pays the repo man less, or in most cases nothing, when they make contact and the customer pays from their contact. If they took the car the lender suffers a several thousand dollar loss, but if their efforts get the customer to pay, they dont lose that money, so why wouldnt they reward an agent for dong this, versus penalizing them as they do now?
The next reason I believe forwarding became so popular, at least for us at ARS, was the explosion of the sub prime market. Companies like LSE were jumping into servicing and they didnt really understand the repo assignment model and they were getting eaten alive with wrongful repossessions, inefficient vendors, volume, etc. We handled a then industry record 50K repossessions in 98 and most were sub prime loans serviced by companies like LSE, Harvest group, and a bunch of other names I don't remember as they're all long gone. We knew the decision makers they hired from prior business relationships we'd established and we gave them an immediate solution, at a fair price. We also paid the repo guy back then $275. It blows me away when I read things like this that say the fee is still $275, or less. We didnt even have tow trucks or computers back then, and now you need all that and more, wages and insurance is much higher, but the price per repo is still being driven down? Why dont lenders see repossessors as valuable commodities to improve their bottom line? FWIW, we pay all our agents $375 a repo, and a $75 to $150 close fee for positive resolution, which we believe is still below what it should be, but at least we have a few clients who see the results and agree this is a fair price.
The next reason is it became attractive for a lender to push the liability to the forwarder as it gave them an extra layer of insulation if something went wrong. This is still the case, and will always be, but the liability exposure from a PR and actual dollar standpoint pales in comparison to the losses some of these lenders are taking by using the current forwarding model. When he says now clients are driving down the price for forwarding, that's to be expected, it's the same thing they did to us as repossessors when I ran my repo companies in the 90s. Clients see expenses as something that should be reduced, and although you can reduce your line item repo expense by making the repo guy charge less, is it really improving your bottom line? No it is not. I guarantee it.
Finally, the selection and management of agents is a process that's difficult to manage when doing it manually, and when you add in metrics, it's still something very few, if any lenders or forwarding agents have a good handle on. Most lenders or forwarders want the cheapest guy and the rest of the details are less important. The one's who measure performance are only scratching the surface of what really needs to be measured.
You cant manage what you cant measure is never more true than when applied to a difficult business like skip tracing and repossession. Just because an agent recovers 60% of the cars does that mean he's great? He may get a better percentage than others, but does that have more to do with the agent or the paper, the area he is in or the quality of the collection work and the assignment preceding the repossessors work in the field? I want to know what an agent does by zip code, how they do overall in all aspects of the job, especially when they have multiple offices.
I can guarantee you J&B Recovery in LA pulls more cars and resolves more accounts out of South Central and Compton than most of the other three dozen guys who advertise in those areas, and that's because Jake gets out of his truck and knocks on doors. The thing is, recovery percentages in South Central have to be low, so if his numbers only show 50% is that bad? Everything is relative, and measurement of as much of the repo process as can be measured is the name of the game when it comes to managing the process, from a lender standpoint, down to a repo agency standpoint, and especially down to an repossessor standpoint so they can become accountable to themselves as well as to their boss.
This is the exact reason I have spent three years re-entering this crazy industry. I believe a change is in order, and if I'm right, lenders will gladly pay more money for results that improve their bottom line, which will start going direct to agents again, as it can be a process they not only will be better able to manage with our software, but after seeing how we manage the process, there is no way they would ever again consider outsourcing such an important decision to a company ran by guys who don't have their best interests in mind, i.e. most forwarders today.
John
Here's his note:
Something new and very interesting is happening.
Chrysler told PAR they would no longer pay more than $350 per repossession. That's $350 total to PAR. In response to this PAR is contacting every agent and cutting their fee to $275 per repossession (Los Angeles agents were given $25 more). PAR wanted to make the cut even greater and tell agents they would only get $250, but they figured too many agents would quit so they settled for $275. At $75 per assignment PAR can't make enough money to make it worthwhile to forward. They also get fewer services from agents, poorer quality of agents and more incidents as they use less experienced and cheaper agents.
How long is Chrysler or anyone else going to use the forwarders when their recovery rates are dropping every year? Some companies are seeing recovery rates as low as 20% from forwarded accounts.
If Chrysler paid me $350 to pick up a car, I'd still do it for them and do them a good job, but how good a job can I do for $275? As you know, I work for most of the forwarding companies and have a good relationship with them, but I'm firing more companies every month. I tell them they want a top of the line agency, but they want to pay for a grease monkey with a sling truck. It just isn't going to work.
PAR made another change a short time ago. They doubled the number of assignments their employees must work each month. They have a quota and if they don't meet it they are gone. Consequently, the employees don't have time to verify addresses, locate new addresses or even talk to the agent in the field about an account.I see this happening more and more often with the forwarding companies.
I've long said the pendulum swung away from agents because they were gouging the lenders. It was our own fault the forwarding companies ever got started. Now, the pendulum is going to swing back toward direct agents and it will be the fault of the forwarders.
I believe in 2010 you are going to see a few of the lenders leaving the forwarding companies and going back to direct agents to get their recovery percentages back up.
Having helped create this industry within our industry, its a subject I am passionate about, as you can tell by some of my other blogs. He raises some good points and I've copied his letter below for your reference.
I agree with most of what he says, but I disagree with his statement that the reason lenders went to Forwarders was gouging? Maybe on a few occasions, as is the case with any industry, but lenders are paying more now for a managed process, so it is doubtful to me that it was a cost issue, or a gouging issue.
I witnessed first hand the transformation of Chrysler Credit from a hundred or so branch company to a 3-4 call center company. That is one reason lenders went to forwarders as it became difficult for these companies to manage so many relationships after they went to a national call center model. It killed the days of getting to know your local repo man. When I was a collector in the Sacramento branch, and a collection manager in Long Beach and Cerritos for Chrysler Credit, I knew all the agents in town, and I knew who to use, and who not to use. Being the president of some association didn't automatically qualify a repo company as being good in my book back then, or even now. I respect those who serve the industry, but for me the bottom line is always the bottom line, and that's performance.
Good luck knowing your local Wyoming repo man if your at a call center in Dallas. Relationships are built on trust, and that's tough when you've never even met the person who owns the repo company. Relationships as difficult as the one between a lender and a repo company are more complex than most business relationships, and in many ways, they're built on trust and hard work. When we brought on a new lender to handle their forwarding back in the 90s, each of those relationships had evolved over years of trust being built.
IMO, the second reason forwarding became common was inexperience. How many clients had departments or people managing the repo process on a national basis? At Chrysler, the agents you approved was a decision made at the branch level back then. We were successful at ARS with our first client in 1993-94, VW credit, for this exact reason. We had started Skipbusters in 1988 and for the prior six years, we'd been managing a group of 300 or so agents, and believe me, it wasn't easy getting the number whittled down from 2000 to 300 of the best agents in the country. We were repossessors and we understood that business, so it was easier to manage, but it took six years to get it right. We'd also been skip tracing and managing the VW skip repo's for several years and we had built trust with them.
Back then we charged a reasonable fee of $75 per assignment, and the next reason lenders outsourced this process is the cost was less, and by cost in the VW example, it was driven by actual cost and also productivity gains we showed over the results they were getting before they were using ARS, so their bottom line improved. If more lenders looked at "cost" as a bottom line number and not a line item repo expense, we wouldnt be in this mess. It still blows my mind the same effort is expected and the same price per repo is paid for a car worth $1500 as one worth $50K. That certainly doesnt make sense for a finance company, but that's the way it is, and that's another topic for another blog. I could also ask why a client pays the repo man less, or in most cases nothing, when they make contact and the customer pays from their contact. If they took the car the lender suffers a several thousand dollar loss, but if their efforts get the customer to pay, they dont lose that money, so why wouldnt they reward an agent for dong this, versus penalizing them as they do now?
The next reason I believe forwarding became so popular, at least for us at ARS, was the explosion of the sub prime market. Companies like LSE were jumping into servicing and they didnt really understand the repo assignment model and they were getting eaten alive with wrongful repossessions, inefficient vendors, volume, etc. We handled a then industry record 50K repossessions in 98 and most were sub prime loans serviced by companies like LSE, Harvest group, and a bunch of other names I don't remember as they're all long gone. We knew the decision makers they hired from prior business relationships we'd established and we gave them an immediate solution, at a fair price. We also paid the repo guy back then $275. It blows me away when I read things like this that say the fee is still $275, or less. We didnt even have tow trucks or computers back then, and now you need all that and more, wages and insurance is much higher, but the price per repo is still being driven down? Why dont lenders see repossessors as valuable commodities to improve their bottom line? FWIW, we pay all our agents $375 a repo, and a $75 to $150 close fee for positive resolution, which we believe is still below what it should be, but at least we have a few clients who see the results and agree this is a fair price.
The next reason is it became attractive for a lender to push the liability to the forwarder as it gave them an extra layer of insulation if something went wrong. This is still the case, and will always be, but the liability exposure from a PR and actual dollar standpoint pales in comparison to the losses some of these lenders are taking by using the current forwarding model. When he says now clients are driving down the price for forwarding, that's to be expected, it's the same thing they did to us as repossessors when I ran my repo companies in the 90s. Clients see expenses as something that should be reduced, and although you can reduce your line item repo expense by making the repo guy charge less, is it really improving your bottom line? No it is not. I guarantee it.
Finally, the selection and management of agents is a process that's difficult to manage when doing it manually, and when you add in metrics, it's still something very few, if any lenders or forwarding agents have a good handle on. Most lenders or forwarders want the cheapest guy and the rest of the details are less important. The one's who measure performance are only scratching the surface of what really needs to be measured.
You cant manage what you cant measure is never more true than when applied to a difficult business like skip tracing and repossession. Just because an agent recovers 60% of the cars does that mean he's great? He may get a better percentage than others, but does that have more to do with the agent or the paper, the area he is in or the quality of the collection work and the assignment preceding the repossessors work in the field? I want to know what an agent does by zip code, how they do overall in all aspects of the job, especially when they have multiple offices.
I can guarantee you J&B Recovery in LA pulls more cars and resolves more accounts out of South Central and Compton than most of the other three dozen guys who advertise in those areas, and that's because Jake gets out of his truck and knocks on doors. The thing is, recovery percentages in South Central have to be low, so if his numbers only show 50% is that bad? Everything is relative, and measurement of as much of the repo process as can be measured is the name of the game when it comes to managing the process, from a lender standpoint, down to a repo agency standpoint, and especially down to an repossessor standpoint so they can become accountable to themselves as well as to their boss.
This is the exact reason I have spent three years re-entering this crazy industry. I believe a change is in order, and if I'm right, lenders will gladly pay more money for results that improve their bottom line, which will start going direct to agents again, as it can be a process they not only will be better able to manage with our software, but after seeing how we manage the process, there is no way they would ever again consider outsourcing such an important decision to a company ran by guys who don't have their best interests in mind, i.e. most forwarders today.
John
Here's his note:
Something new and very interesting is happening.
Chrysler told PAR they would no longer pay more than $350 per repossession. That's $350 total to PAR. In response to this PAR is contacting every agent and cutting their fee to $275 per repossession (Los Angeles agents were given $25 more). PAR wanted to make the cut even greater and tell agents they would only get $250, but they figured too many agents would quit so they settled for $275. At $75 per assignment PAR can't make enough money to make it worthwhile to forward. They also get fewer services from agents, poorer quality of agents and more incidents as they use less experienced and cheaper agents.
How long is Chrysler or anyone else going to use the forwarders when their recovery rates are dropping every year? Some companies are seeing recovery rates as low as 20% from forwarded accounts.
If Chrysler paid me $350 to pick up a car, I'd still do it for them and do them a good job, but how good a job can I do for $275? As you know, I work for most of the forwarding companies and have a good relationship with them, but I'm firing more companies every month. I tell them they want a top of the line agency, but they want to pay for a grease monkey with a sling truck. It just isn't going to work.
PAR made another change a short time ago. They doubled the number of assignments their employees must work each month. They have a quota and if they don't meet it they are gone. Consequently, the employees don't have time to verify addresses, locate new addresses or even talk to the agent in the field about an account.I see this happening more and more often with the forwarding companies.
I've long said the pendulum swung away from agents because they were gouging the lenders. It was our own fault the forwarding companies ever got started. Now, the pendulum is going to swing back toward direct agents and it will be the fault of the forwarders.
I believe in 2010 you are going to see a few of the lenders leaving the forwarding companies and going back to direct agents to get their recovery percentages back up.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
The biggest change in the Auto Finance Industry has been...
WOR.
You may have no idea what WOR means, unless you've been around since the early 80s.
When I started at Chrysler Credit there was a clause in most auto finance contracts called "Recourse".
Recourse meant that the customer, the debtor, the guy buying AND Financing the car, was ultimately the responsibility of the dealership if he went beyond the point of basic delinquency.
It's been a while, so my memory may be a bit rusty, but I believe most deals were 90 or 120 day recourse. That meant that when the customer bought the car at the dealership and they sent us the credit app and contract to consider the customer for a loan, we knew that the dealer was also a part of that credit decision as they would be on the hook for the FULL BALANCE if the customer went into default beyond 90 or 120 days.
When we got to day 60 of the delinquency we would notify the dealership that the customer was late on his payment(s) and they were being put on notice, and that we could, and would, be asking for a payoff of the loan if that delinquency was not immediately corrected. Sometimes we let the dealer slide a few months and we allowed them to make a payment or two versus having to pay off the entire loan.
Can you imagine the ramifications of this in today's market? Think about how that would have affected the sub prime mortgage industry if the brokers would have ultimately been responsible to the bank if the guy buying the house defaulted. Would they have been so quick to falsify the documentation to get the loan approved if they knew they ultimately could and would be responsible? Of course not. Would they have been selling everyone who could walk, talk and sign a contract a house, if they would be responsible of the person went into default? Of course not.
At Chrysler, our dealers were our partners. When WOR, or With Out Recourse paper became the rule instead of the exception, that partnership went away. It started to go to WOR when some finance companies offered WOR as an alternative to Recourse contracts, and the rates were competitive enough that the dealer would start placing those loans to finance companies offering WOR contracts. Pretty soon, Chrysler and all the other major lenders had no choice but to offer WOR contracts.
With WOR, the dealership no longer had any interest in what deals they sent us, how those loans would perform, how we collected payments on their customers, etc. Once the deal was financed, the dealer was off the hook, so what was their motivation to make sure they got good reference numbers, valid POE info, a Co-Signer who could and would pay, etc? There was no motivation, and when that happened, the quality of the paperwork dealerships would collect in terms of customer documentation started to decline.
I believe the dealerships were also responsible when we repossessed a car before the 90 or 120th day. We'd bring the dealer the car instead of taking it to an auction and the dealer would pay off our contract.
At the same time this happened, Chrysler and all the other major lenders started consolidating to large call centers, another major change. This further segregated the finance company from the dealership.
It's interesting to see Chase getting back to a local branch model in regard to their auto finance collection strategy. As time goes on, I believe you will see this model succeed for them, and you may also see other lenders try and look to copy what they've done when they acquired WAMU and took over their branches, in many cases setting up auto finance collection centers. I've often wondered if they thought of this as a pre-acquisition strategy, or as a "what do we do with all these branches?" after the acquisition strategy?
As banks and lenders continue to keep their belts tightened, will we ever see Recourse paper come back?
If it does, I think it would be a way to rebuild the bond between car dealers and finance companies, especially for captive lenders who so greatly rely on each other. I believe the industry should revisit the benefits this relationship used to bring each other, and maybe this could be the catalyst to rebuilding a stronger auto finance model in the future. Now that banks hold more cards in regard to lending, there may not be a better opportunity to revisit recourse lending.
John Lewis
President
www.FindJohnDoe.com
You may have no idea what WOR means, unless you've been around since the early 80s.
When I started at Chrysler Credit there was a clause in most auto finance contracts called "Recourse".
Recourse meant that the customer, the debtor, the guy buying AND Financing the car, was ultimately the responsibility of the dealership if he went beyond the point of basic delinquency.
It's been a while, so my memory may be a bit rusty, but I believe most deals were 90 or 120 day recourse. That meant that when the customer bought the car at the dealership and they sent us the credit app and contract to consider the customer for a loan, we knew that the dealer was also a part of that credit decision as they would be on the hook for the FULL BALANCE if the customer went into default beyond 90 or 120 days.
When we got to day 60 of the delinquency we would notify the dealership that the customer was late on his payment(s) and they were being put on notice, and that we could, and would, be asking for a payoff of the loan if that delinquency was not immediately corrected. Sometimes we let the dealer slide a few months and we allowed them to make a payment or two versus having to pay off the entire loan.
Can you imagine the ramifications of this in today's market? Think about how that would have affected the sub prime mortgage industry if the brokers would have ultimately been responsible to the bank if the guy buying the house defaulted. Would they have been so quick to falsify the documentation to get the loan approved if they knew they ultimately could and would be responsible? Of course not. Would they have been selling everyone who could walk, talk and sign a contract a house, if they would be responsible of the person went into default? Of course not.
At Chrysler, our dealers were our partners. When WOR, or With Out Recourse paper became the rule instead of the exception, that partnership went away. It started to go to WOR when some finance companies offered WOR as an alternative to Recourse contracts, and the rates were competitive enough that the dealer would start placing those loans to finance companies offering WOR contracts. Pretty soon, Chrysler and all the other major lenders had no choice but to offer WOR contracts.
With WOR, the dealership no longer had any interest in what deals they sent us, how those loans would perform, how we collected payments on their customers, etc. Once the deal was financed, the dealer was off the hook, so what was their motivation to make sure they got good reference numbers, valid POE info, a Co-Signer who could and would pay, etc? There was no motivation, and when that happened, the quality of the paperwork dealerships would collect in terms of customer documentation started to decline.
I believe the dealerships were also responsible when we repossessed a car before the 90 or 120th day. We'd bring the dealer the car instead of taking it to an auction and the dealer would pay off our contract.
At the same time this happened, Chrysler and all the other major lenders started consolidating to large call centers, another major change. This further segregated the finance company from the dealership.
It's interesting to see Chase getting back to a local branch model in regard to their auto finance collection strategy. As time goes on, I believe you will see this model succeed for them, and you may also see other lenders try and look to copy what they've done when they acquired WAMU and took over their branches, in many cases setting up auto finance collection centers. I've often wondered if they thought of this as a pre-acquisition strategy, or as a "what do we do with all these branches?" after the acquisition strategy?
As banks and lenders continue to keep their belts tightened, will we ever see Recourse paper come back?
If it does, I think it would be a way to rebuild the bond between car dealers and finance companies, especially for captive lenders who so greatly rely on each other. I believe the industry should revisit the benefits this relationship used to bring each other, and maybe this could be the catalyst to rebuilding a stronger auto finance model in the future. Now that banks hold more cards in regard to lending, there may not be a better opportunity to revisit recourse lending.
John Lewis
President
www.FindJohnDoe.com
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Repossession assignments and fine wine; a case study
The Auto Finance summit is convening in a couple weeks, and while I unfortunately won't be able to attend, I have replied to a question by the organizer of the event who asks what challenges does the auto finance industry face as we enter the 4th quarter of 2009.
Here is my reply:
A huge challenge lenders continue to face is in regard to assessing and managing risk; i.e. high risk loans on their books that go delinquent.
I have been on the cutting edge of the back end of our industry for nearly thirty years, and when you ask about challenges and solutions, I believe I have identified the challenges many lenders face on the back end, and I have worked very hard and invested a significant amount of my own capital to come up with a solution that can assist lenders, and one that can reward, instead of punish, the solid repossession companies, which is the direction I unfortunately have seen our industry headed in the two and a half years since I got back into it.
We have been working diligently to create an opportunity through a software product that assesses and manages risk, and we will be launching it in 2010. We have an immediate interest in adding one lender to our team of three external financial institution beta test users in Q4 2009. There is no cost to the lender during testing, and if our software works as we project, it can save a lender millions of dollars in annual losses.
As the person who started the first exclusive Skip Tracing company for the auto finance industry in 1988 in SkipBusters, and the first forwarding company to handle more than 50,000 assignments a year in American Recovery Service in 1993-94, I have re-entered this industry after my five year non-compete expired, and my goal was to create a software product that could assist lenders to identify, and better manage, their high risk accounts.
We have finished our internal beta testing of the new software and in a 90 day contest against two of the largest skip companies in the country, working a captive lenders oldest, most difficult charged off skip accounts, we won this contest handily. The results are a direct reflection of the power of our new software. In this 500 file per company contest, we've more than doubled the amount of repossessions the 3rd place company has gotten, and we've gotten 40% more repossessions than the second place company. We also helped our client get twice as many accounts paid in full than the second place finisher, with the last place finisher getting zero paid in full. These paid in full accounts are a direct reflection on the work done by our approved and contracted outside repo agents as they get paid a close fee when a customer pays, and they are not working on a strictly contingent basis.
As a comparison, we also beat these same two skip tracing companies in the last contest that ended July 1st, but we only were using the new software for the last 30 days, and in those last 30 days, we came from last to first to win by 10%, which happened as soon as we started using our new software.
These results are not a reflection on our two competitors as both are leaders in the skip tracing industry and I'm sure they do a fine job overall, in fact, I personally trained the owner of one of those companies when he used to work for me. These results do show that when utilizing the proper software, you can increase your efficiency and if you're a lender using this in a pre-charge off environment, you can reduce your losses significantly.
How many of you are on an old legacy software platform that isn't much better than using a green screen when it comes to measuring and analyzing data?
How many of you cringe when you or your collection managers need to deploy resources from your internal IT department?
Those are some of the major challenges our industry faces today, at least from what I've seen through the interaction I've had with some of the largest lenders in the industry in the past two years. I've created a back end solution for this problem, and so far, the results are positive.
In addition to these internal challenges facing lenders, they also are facing new challenges posed by two relatively new industries, and one older industry; Skip Tracing, Forwarding and Repossession.
When we started Skip Busters in 1988, there were no skip companies that exclusively handled skip tracing on delinquent auto loans. Now there are dozens, and its a several hundred million dollar a year industry. While this helps lenders, it also opens them up to risk as they now have outside vendors working their files by phone, and between FDCPA, SOX, GLB and many other federal and state laws, plus ID Theft issues, this is now a greater risk to lenders who outsource this work then they've ever faced. Due to this, you need a solid software program that analyzes and manages this risk. If your customers ID is compromised at a vendor level, you need specifics answers and metrics to back up those answers, otherwise, the liability and exposure you and your vendor face can be in the hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars range.
When we started exclusively managing the repossession process for VW Credit on a national basis in 1993, Manheim had just closed its doors on a division they had started a few years earlier that did the same thing. There were a few other industry leaders from the repossession industry, i.e. Minnesota Repossessors, who had gained market share through trust in terms of direct repossession assignments as we had done with Skip Busters, and through our No Calif repo companies; River City Auto Recovery.
As a result of our growth, we were starting to get requests from clients to help them manage their national needs. The industry had grown from individual branches to large, national call centers, and the managers of these places were now facing new challenges in identifying their best repo companies on a national level, and not as they used to on a local level. Almost immediately after we started seeing success, ADT got in and soon they were purchased by Manheim, and many others followed suit on what we were doing for VW Credit, and then for a number of large, new sub-prime lenders; managing their repossessions.
They now call it Forwarding, a term I never really liked as it implies there is little or no skill involved. Our idea was to "manage" the process by paying the repo company a fair price, and then we would charge a flat service fee based on our work. We charged a $75 mark up back then. Nowadays, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone doing over 20% of their forwarding work for less than a $100 mark up per repo.
When I got back in the industry in 2007, I was shocked to see how much traction the forwarding business had gained, and I was also shocked by what it had done to the industry. Most forwarders now make their money on the mark up they get by charging the lender as much as possible, and by paying the repo agent as little as possible. This raises the stakes to the finance company significantly, and it's not just the cost of the insurance claim, it's now also the exposure on CNN they may someday get, something every lender would be more concerned with if they could see what's really happening on their repo assignments placed with most forwarders.
Repossession management was a good idea, and it still is on a limited basis, but only when lenders hold the forwarder liable for their actions and when they audit them to insure their practices are within the best interests of the lending institution. Are all their outside repo agents contracted? Do they have proper insurance? Do they drug test their employees and do the repo agents they hire hold their employees to certain standards? Do they perform background checks and do their agents? Do they allow repo companies to use independent contractors versus hiring employees? Do they get out of their truck to kick in a deal, or is it not worth it because they are being paid on a contingent basis and there is no commission for the repo man when he tries to help the lender resolve the account, unless its through repossession.
"Oh, but we pay our guys $25 on every deal they close".
Show me the documentation.
I challenge you CEO's out there reading this to pull a report on the average amount of days your repossession assignments are assigned to the agent they are currently with, forwarder or direct. If it's higher than two weeks on average you have a problem. Accounts need to be moved through queue's, followed up on, and managed to the point where there is always some form of forward progress. I don't mean the type of backward progress we see in our end of the industry when a collector runs a bureau or a public records report and throws the last three, or six addresses reported for the customer at the repo agent to run "and kick in hard", making the repo agent do the work the collector or skip tracer should, and can do with a couple phone calls to verify first if the address is good or not. Those are the challenges a lender faces, and if you have a high charge off percentage, you might want to start by analyzing those trends and numbers.
High risk accounts need to be identified and worked diligently, or they will become more difficult with age in the same manner a fine wine becomes better with age, by sitting around and aging. The difference is your customer is driving and causing your collateral to lose value with every mile whereas your wine is sitting in a wine cellar aging gracefully, increasing, noty decreasing in value.
Many forwarding companies do a good job, but if they're paying a tow jockey with marginal, if any insurance a $175 repo fee and then charging the client a $475 repo fee so they can make their margin that they're losing because 50% of their deals are being worked on a contingent basis, the client, and the successful repo agent who doesnt get the deal are the one's taking it in the shorts, not the forwarder. I"m not saying a repo agent needs to get paid on every close, but they should expect to get deals with verified addresses, one address at a time (two if there is a POE) and if they resolve that address in a positive manner, they should get something for their effort. This allows you to move the account to the next queue, and by doing so, you are addressing and not pushing aside your risk.
Forwarding, as it currently is being used, and from what I've seen, is not good for the finance industry, yet accounts are assigned to Forwarders thousands of times a day. Forwarders now control a material portion of the repossession assignments, which is scary when you see how most of them are operating their companies. That's a challenge lenders face, and the solution is to re-establish direct relationships with solid repo companies they identify, and then use software and training to manage the process. I know why Outsourced Repossession Management made sense in the 90s, but as I see how it's evolved, I believe it has trended in the wrong direction and that's a challenge lenders who use Forwarders face.
Some things were meant to be outsourced, and while early stage collections on an account that is not a high risk is a good idea, outsourcing the management of your entire repossession portfolio without a clear understanding of the relationship between the Forwarder and the repo agent and the metrics behind that to verify what you are being sold is accurate, its a recipe for disaster. I think the assignment and verification of specific pieces of your portfolio like impounds and assignments in remote locations is an idea worth paying a mark up for, but there is no reason to pay the mark up to a guy pushing the paper when you can, and are better off, making those decisions yourself.
If you are a lender and agree with some of what I've said and would be interested in speaking with me about becoming a beta test user for our software, please contact me at 916 730 3335 or jlewis@FindJohnDoe.com
OK JJ, now you can ask your programmers to limit the replies to people's posts to xxx characters. Sorry for rambling about a subject I'm passionate about, but this industry has been good to my employees, my family, and to my wife and I, and if we can somehow give something back, we're hoping it can be through the technology we've created with the software we've written that's based on thirty years of experience as a lender, a vendor, and an outsider who is now back in.
John Lewis
President
FindJohnDoe.com
Here is my reply:
A huge challenge lenders continue to face is in regard to assessing and managing risk; i.e. high risk loans on their books that go delinquent.
I have been on the cutting edge of the back end of our industry for nearly thirty years, and when you ask about challenges and solutions, I believe I have identified the challenges many lenders face on the back end, and I have worked very hard and invested a significant amount of my own capital to come up with a solution that can assist lenders, and one that can reward, instead of punish, the solid repossession companies, which is the direction I unfortunately have seen our industry headed in the two and a half years since I got back into it.
We have been working diligently to create an opportunity through a software product that assesses and manages risk, and we will be launching it in 2010. We have an immediate interest in adding one lender to our team of three external financial institution beta test users in Q4 2009. There is no cost to the lender during testing, and if our software works as we project, it can save a lender millions of dollars in annual losses.
As the person who started the first exclusive Skip Tracing company for the auto finance industry in 1988 in SkipBusters, and the first forwarding company to handle more than 50,000 assignments a year in American Recovery Service in 1993-94, I have re-entered this industry after my five year non-compete expired, and my goal was to create a software product that could assist lenders to identify, and better manage, their high risk accounts.
We have finished our internal beta testing of the new software and in a 90 day contest against two of the largest skip companies in the country, working a captive lenders oldest, most difficult charged off skip accounts, we won this contest handily. The results are a direct reflection of the power of our new software. In this 500 file per company contest, we've more than doubled the amount of repossessions the 3rd place company has gotten, and we've gotten 40% more repossessions than the second place company. We also helped our client get twice as many accounts paid in full than the second place finisher, with the last place finisher getting zero paid in full. These paid in full accounts are a direct reflection on the work done by our approved and contracted outside repo agents as they get paid a close fee when a customer pays, and they are not working on a strictly contingent basis.
As a comparison, we also beat these same two skip tracing companies in the last contest that ended July 1st, but we only were using the new software for the last 30 days, and in those last 30 days, we came from last to first to win by 10%, which happened as soon as we started using our new software.
These results are not a reflection on our two competitors as both are leaders in the skip tracing industry and I'm sure they do a fine job overall, in fact, I personally trained the owner of one of those companies when he used to work for me. These results do show that when utilizing the proper software, you can increase your efficiency and if you're a lender using this in a pre-charge off environment, you can reduce your losses significantly.
How many of you are on an old legacy software platform that isn't much better than using a green screen when it comes to measuring and analyzing data?
How many of you cringe when you or your collection managers need to deploy resources from your internal IT department?
Those are some of the major challenges our industry faces today, at least from what I've seen through the interaction I've had with some of the largest lenders in the industry in the past two years. I've created a back end solution for this problem, and so far, the results are positive.
In addition to these internal challenges facing lenders, they also are facing new challenges posed by two relatively new industries, and one older industry; Skip Tracing, Forwarding and Repossession.
When we started Skip Busters in 1988, there were no skip companies that exclusively handled skip tracing on delinquent auto loans. Now there are dozens, and its a several hundred million dollar a year industry. While this helps lenders, it also opens them up to risk as they now have outside vendors working their files by phone, and between FDCPA, SOX, GLB and many other federal and state laws, plus ID Theft issues, this is now a greater risk to lenders who outsource this work then they've ever faced. Due to this, you need a solid software program that analyzes and manages this risk. If your customers ID is compromised at a vendor level, you need specifics answers and metrics to back up those answers, otherwise, the liability and exposure you and your vendor face can be in the hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars range.
When we started exclusively managing the repossession process for VW Credit on a national basis in 1993, Manheim had just closed its doors on a division they had started a few years earlier that did the same thing. There were a few other industry leaders from the repossession industry, i.e. Minnesota Repossessors, who had gained market share through trust in terms of direct repossession assignments as we had done with Skip Busters, and through our No Calif repo companies; River City Auto Recovery.
As a result of our growth, we were starting to get requests from clients to help them manage their national needs. The industry had grown from individual branches to large, national call centers, and the managers of these places were now facing new challenges in identifying their best repo companies on a national level, and not as they used to on a local level. Almost immediately after we started seeing success, ADT got in and soon they were purchased by Manheim, and many others followed suit on what we were doing for VW Credit, and then for a number of large, new sub-prime lenders; managing their repossessions.
They now call it Forwarding, a term I never really liked as it implies there is little or no skill involved. Our idea was to "manage" the process by paying the repo company a fair price, and then we would charge a flat service fee based on our work. We charged a $75 mark up back then. Nowadays, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone doing over 20% of their forwarding work for less than a $100 mark up per repo.
When I got back in the industry in 2007, I was shocked to see how much traction the forwarding business had gained, and I was also shocked by what it had done to the industry. Most forwarders now make their money on the mark up they get by charging the lender as much as possible, and by paying the repo agent as little as possible. This raises the stakes to the finance company significantly, and it's not just the cost of the insurance claim, it's now also the exposure on CNN they may someday get, something every lender would be more concerned with if they could see what's really happening on their repo assignments placed with most forwarders.
Repossession management was a good idea, and it still is on a limited basis, but only when lenders hold the forwarder liable for their actions and when they audit them to insure their practices are within the best interests of the lending institution. Are all their outside repo agents contracted? Do they have proper insurance? Do they drug test their employees and do the repo agents they hire hold their employees to certain standards? Do they perform background checks and do their agents? Do they allow repo companies to use independent contractors versus hiring employees? Do they get out of their truck to kick in a deal, or is it not worth it because they are being paid on a contingent basis and there is no commission for the repo man when he tries to help the lender resolve the account, unless its through repossession.
"Oh, but we pay our guys $25 on every deal they close".
Show me the documentation.
I challenge you CEO's out there reading this to pull a report on the average amount of days your repossession assignments are assigned to the agent they are currently with, forwarder or direct. If it's higher than two weeks on average you have a problem. Accounts need to be moved through queue's, followed up on, and managed to the point where there is always some form of forward progress. I don't mean the type of backward progress we see in our end of the industry when a collector runs a bureau or a public records report and throws the last three, or six addresses reported for the customer at the repo agent to run "and kick in hard", making the repo agent do the work the collector or skip tracer should, and can do with a couple phone calls to verify first if the address is good or not. Those are the challenges a lender faces, and if you have a high charge off percentage, you might want to start by analyzing those trends and numbers.
High risk accounts need to be identified and worked diligently, or they will become more difficult with age in the same manner a fine wine becomes better with age, by sitting around and aging. The difference is your customer is driving and causing your collateral to lose value with every mile whereas your wine is sitting in a wine cellar aging gracefully, increasing, noty decreasing in value.
Many forwarding companies do a good job, but if they're paying a tow jockey with marginal, if any insurance a $175 repo fee and then charging the client a $475 repo fee so they can make their margin that they're losing because 50% of their deals are being worked on a contingent basis, the client, and the successful repo agent who doesnt get the deal are the one's taking it in the shorts, not the forwarder. I"m not saying a repo agent needs to get paid on every close, but they should expect to get deals with verified addresses, one address at a time (two if there is a POE) and if they resolve that address in a positive manner, they should get something for their effort. This allows you to move the account to the next queue, and by doing so, you are addressing and not pushing aside your risk.
Forwarding, as it currently is being used, and from what I've seen, is not good for the finance industry, yet accounts are assigned to Forwarders thousands of times a day. Forwarders now control a material portion of the repossession assignments, which is scary when you see how most of them are operating their companies. That's a challenge lenders face, and the solution is to re-establish direct relationships with solid repo companies they identify, and then use software and training to manage the process. I know why Outsourced Repossession Management made sense in the 90s, but as I see how it's evolved, I believe it has trended in the wrong direction and that's a challenge lenders who use Forwarders face.
Some things were meant to be outsourced, and while early stage collections on an account that is not a high risk is a good idea, outsourcing the management of your entire repossession portfolio without a clear understanding of the relationship between the Forwarder and the repo agent and the metrics behind that to verify what you are being sold is accurate, its a recipe for disaster. I think the assignment and verification of specific pieces of your portfolio like impounds and assignments in remote locations is an idea worth paying a mark up for, but there is no reason to pay the mark up to a guy pushing the paper when you can, and are better off, making those decisions yourself.
If you are a lender and agree with some of what I've said and would be interested in speaking with me about becoming a beta test user for our software, please contact me at 916 730 3335 or jlewis@FindJohnDoe.com
OK JJ, now you can ask your programmers to limit the replies to people's posts to xxx characters. Sorry for rambling about a subject I'm passionate about, but this industry has been good to my employees, my family, and to my wife and I, and if we can somehow give something back, we're hoping it can be through the technology we've created with the software we've written that's based on thirty years of experience as a lender, a vendor, and an outsider who is now back in.
John Lewis
President
FindJohnDoe.com
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Direct Repossession vs Forwarding - Price vs Cost
Repossession Forwarding – Price vs Cost
Newspapers and TV crews love to tell stories about Repo Men, but the stories I’m seeing lately seem to be more about the Forwarding Industry than the Repossession Industry.
FROM USA TODAY 2/29/2009
Violence up between Repo Men, Car Owners
HALSELL, Ala. (AP) — Alone in his mobile home off a winding dirt road, Jimmy Tanks heard a commotion at 2:30 a.m. just outside his bedroom window: Somebody was messing with his car. The 67-year-old railroad retiree grabbed a gun, walked out the back door and confronted not a thief but a repo man and two helpers trying to tow off the Chrysler Sebring. Shots were fired, and Tanks wound up dead, a bullet in his chest.
The man who came to repossess the car, Kenneth Alvin Smith, is awaiting trial on a murder charge in a state considered a Wild West territory even by the standards of an industry that's largely unregulated nationally. Since Tanks' death last June, two other repo men from the same company Smith worked for were shot, one fatally.
Smith worked out of Birmingham with XXXXXXX Recovery (Repo agency) , a subsidiary of the Chicago-based XXXXXX Services (Forwarding Company). The same recovery firm employed a repo man who was shot and killed on Jan. 8 in Birmingham, as well as a third worker who was wounded while towing a vehicle in the city on Feb. 10.
I removed the name of the Repo Company and the Forwarding Company that hired them because my point is not to bad mouth a specific company, but to make a point about the state of the Forwarding Industry.
Before I do that, let me give you a little bit of history. I know a little bit about the “Forwarding Industry”. I started a company in 1994 called American Recovery Services, or ARS, as it’s known in the industry. It was one of, if not the first large volume Forwarding Companies, handling upwards of 50,000 assignments for repossession a year in the mid to late 90s.
We started it by accident. We had formed one of the first Skip Tracing companies that exclusively serviced the auto finance industry in 1988; Skipbusters. By the early 90s, we had several hundred Repossession Companies across the United States under contract to repossess the cars we located on the skip accounts we worked for large financial institutions.
One of our clients was VW Credit, and ironically, I had been one of the first VW Credit employees back in the early 80s when they first started financing cars in the US. VW had hired Chrysler Credit to manage the finance and collection process, and I was a Chrysler employee. By 1994, VW had split from Chrysler and they had gone out on their own, and I had done the same.
I’d landed VW as a client at the first repossession company I had started in 1990 with my wife and a business partner; Crown Recovery Services in L.A. By early 94, we’d sold our half of Crown and we’d started River City Auto Recovery at several locations in Northern California. We were doing all of VW’s repossessions in Northern California, and we were also were handling several hundred skips a month through Skipbusters.
While visiting VW’s HQ they asked us if we would be interested in managing their repossession process through our nationwide network. We did some research and formed ARS within a few weeks. We never called it “Forwarding”, in fact, we never even gave it a name other than ARS. By the late 90s, all the national auction houses had jumped in and started similar companies, and even Manheim got back into the business with their acquisition of ADT in 2000, even though in 1994 when I first started researching the formation of ARS, they told me they tried it a few years earlier on a small scale and almost immediately got out because it was just too difficult a business to manage. Interestingly, I heard last week they were recently sold to XXXX Forwarding company, probably a smart move on Manheim’s account, if they got a good price and didn’t have to guarantee revenue. It’s tough to run a successful Repossession company, and running a successful Forwarding company is even more challenging, in my opinion.
So yes, I know a little bit about the Forwarding Industry, and what I’ve seen recently is not something I’m proud of when my name is mentioned as a pioneer of this industry.
Here’s another recent, similar story:
From NBC Augusta, GA. 4/13/2009
Repo Man wanted for murder of Augusta Man
MARTINEZ, Ga. - A vehicle repossession turned deadly. The man called his lender to have his vehicle voluntarily repossessed. "As the reposessor was attempting to leave with the truck, he was causing damage to Mr. Jacob's vehicle, it was a van," said Captain Steve Morris with the Columbia County Sheriff’s Office.
"When the truck came forward, he hit me. I was able to push off and get out of the way," said the man. His friend of 20 years, William Jacobs, wasn't as lucky.
"They went diagonally across my front yard and I saw Bill falling and I saw the guy turn and he ran over him...and he never slowed down," said the man. Jacobs was taken to the hospital, where he died.
Now the couple who hit and killed him is on the run and wanted for murder.
Columbia County investigators are working with the repo company, (XXXXXX Forwarding Company) and XXXX (Tow Company) to help find XXXXX and XXXXXXX.
And here is another one…
Tow Truck Driver Arrested, Charged With Hit And Run
By RNW Staff Writer Hayden Jennings • on June 15, 2009 (Rome, GA.)
Police arrested a local tow truck driver for felony hit and run after he ran allegedly ran over a woman in what police are calling a car repo gone wrong. Residents began giving the driver problems after he failed to produce any paperwork dictating the repo. As the situation continued to escalate, the driver reportedly brandished a hand gun and jumped into the wrecker. At that time the victim, Tina Ferguson, 41, of the same address, walked in front of the wrecker and was struck by the front bumper. The collision sent Ferguson into a barrel roll beside the truck before she rolled under it and was struck by the rear wheels as the wrecker left the scene.
The common denominator is the unprofessional and downright criminal actions of the repossession agents in question. The other common denominator is the fact that most, if not all of these accounts were assigned by the finance company to a company they trusted to handle the management of the repossession process for them, i.e. Forwarding.
In 1994, I believed Forwarding was a good idea, and even today, it still makes sense for some clients who struggle with the repossession management process. The problem is that like everything else, costs of doing business have gone up, and as a result, many forwarding companies are lowering the rates they are willing to pay the repo agent in the field to make sure they can make their needed, or desired margins. I’ve heard some repo companies offering their prospective agents $225 or $250 a repossession, and half that on a voluntary, which very well may be why there are two towing companies mentioned in the stories above.
If you wanted to get Lasix surgery on your eyes, would you hire someone who doesn’t use the best equipment, isn’t licensed, or doesn’t have a successful track record with solid references? Repossessing a car isn’t performing surgery on someone’s eyes, but if I own a finance company and I know what I have learned in the nearly thirty years I’ve spent in this industry, I’m not hiring a tow truck driver to pick up a voluntary just because he will do it for less than a qualified repossessor. I’m also not hiring the cheapest repo guy in town unless I’ve made damn sure he is also the best in town, and those two denominators do not usually mix.
I believe Forwarding companies hire these second class repo and tow jockeys because the deal they cut with the finance company is based more on price than it is on results. They also do this because the finance company doesn’t hold them accountable unless a serious problem arises, and the finance company doesn’t perform the due diligence they should be doing before they give them their first assignment. If they did, many of these Forwarding companies wouldn’t pass the test, and then the one’s who do Forwarding would only be able to perform the services at a certain rate, because otherwise they would go out of business as it’s not inexpensive to properly run a legitimate Forwarding business, Skip Tracing Agency, or Repossession Agency for that matter. The Finance Company would also make sure they knew exactly who the repossession company was contracting with, and instead of not wanting to know, they would demand to know not only who their approved agents are, they would audit them and ask to see the contracts, their insurance policies and the endorsements naking the Forwarding company, and they would perform an acid test on their Forwarding companies policies, procedures and practices to insure that an assignment to a sub-standard repossession agency, or an unlicensed or unqualified tow company would never happen on one of their assignments.
Since I started in this industry in 1982, most clients I’ve known have been focused on getting their repossessions performed for a lower price. I was trained this way at Chrysler. Once I started my first repossession company, I started to see the other side of the picture. Through the years, I’ve built relationships with a few forward thinking clients who have allowed us to charge a fair fee that could be evaluated and renegotiated as we delivered or exceeded their desired results. As I’m building Find John Doe, I’m trying to work with clients who think this way, and I applaud the vendors we do work with who hold their companies to the same core business values. If a client asks us to perform a skip locate for less than our normal rate, I tell them that I just can’t do it as I’ve built an organization that produces results, and we have a level of expected results we have to meet or we would go out of business. Lowering our revenue by even a few dollars makes it that much harder to meet our expectations, and our employees expectations. We work from a results-driven fee basis. If we don’t find people and get the collateral recovered, we make no money. This means I have to build an organization that finds people, or at least enough people to make up for the one’s I don’t find.
Many repo agents say contingency is bad, and while I agree to some degree, it is the way our industry has been built. It will take a long time and some forward thinking clients to make a change. I believe if the repossession fee is high enough to cover the accounts that are not repossessed, and if there is a secondary fee that can be generated for the agent who gets out of his truck and generates a positive resolution, and most importantly, if the repossession company gets a positive resolution on a majority of the accounts they receive, they can make a profit. If they spread themselves too thin and try and cover too large a service area, the chances of making a profit are reduced. If they take on more work than they can handle, the chances of making a profit and building lasting client relationships are reduced. Based on my experience, I’m confident that if the agents we contract with can track their results and build relationships with our company based on results and trust, they can grow a solid business.
The only problem with this is there are times when our industry makes no sense, and then it’s almost as if we have to start all over again in trying to legitimize what we do. A typical example of this is when a client assigns an account for repossession and lets say the balance is $20K. If the agent repossesses the car, the client pays them between $325 and $395 on average, and then the car goes to auction and they lose around $10K. If the repo agent makes contact and as a result the customer pays the account current, avoiding a repossession and a potential $10K loss, the client doesn’t pay the agent more money, they usually pay them considerably less, and in some cases they pay them nothing.
As I approach my fiftieth birthday and the twilight years of my career in this industry, it would be nice if I could have a hand in helping clients see the benefits of building relationships with their vendors that are results based, with fair fees paid to the vendors that are justified by a solid ROI for the client, and for the vendor.
In another example, I had an agent tell me the other day that they had a client giving them about 100 accounts a month for the past several years and they were charging somewhere in the range of $350. They tracked their stats and were getting close to 90% of the accounts either repossessed, or the people would pay from the direct contact they were making in the field and they charged them a $150 cure fee. The agent said they were considering asking the finance company for a 5-10% raise because the cost of fuel, state of the art technology, health and unemployment insurance increases and now that their staff was more experienced, their staffing costs had gone up and as a result of these expenses, their profits had been reduced to barely above a break even at $325 a repo, even when they got 90% closed or recovered. The agent called and asked for my opinion and I suggested they open their books and show the client how their margins had been cut, but their performance had been consistent and even if they couldn’t raise their fees enough in one year to make up the difference, maybe they could get a 5% raise, and an extra 5% if they increased their positive resolution to 92% from 90%.
I didn’t hear back from the agent and about a month later I put in a call to follow up. Unfortunately, what I heard was not surprising. Before they made that call they got a call from the new collection supervisor who said they would have to reduce their price to $325 or they wouldn’t receive any more business as they were going with a national forwarding company who was charging $325 a repo.
This is a typical example of a story I hear many times over. If the Forwarder is charging $325, then what are they paying the repo company and what is the quality of the repossessor they’re getting for $225 or $250 - see above stories for the correct answer. How much will the lawsuits in the above stories cost the finance companies? I guarantee it will be seven figures, plus the intangible bad press every finance company seems to be most scared of.
In this example, if the forwarder still got them a 90% recovery rate on an annual basis, they would be saving $25 per repossession, or a total of $27,000 for the year. I’ll bet the average charge off this finance company pays for every full balance skip charge off is about $15,000. So, if the Forwarding company got them a 70% recovery rate, which is a high rate for a typical forwarding company, that would be 20 less repossessions a month, or 240 less a year. At $15,000 per charge off, that’s a loss of about three and a half million dollars a year.
As I’ve said, using a company to help you manage the repossession process can be a benefit, but make sure you hold them accountable. If you have a repossession agent that’s getting you 80% or higher and they meet your other requirements, use the forwarder in the areas where your percentages are less, or in remote areas, and keep the company who has earned your trust and find a way to incentivize them to get an even higher percentage and pay them what they’re worth.
“Is it Price you’re concerned about, or is it cost?” One of the most famous sales consultants of our time, Zig Ziglar, wrote the gospel to this question, and ultimately it’s answer. If you haven’t heard him speak on this topic, please take the time to Google his name and listen to one of his podcasts, which are available on line for free. It certainly can be applied to the Repossession and the Forwarding industries.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Identifying Risk
I've been skip tracing my whole life.
I think most decent skip tracers have.
I didn't realize it until I was 21 years old and working for Chrysler Credit as a collector.
I'd been hired as a field rep, but that type of work was closer to the shenanigans I used to pull as a kid growing up in the suburbs of Chicago. I never stole a car or anything like that, but my buddies and I were pretty mischievous and we did some crazy things when we did sleep outs in the summer. When I realized that my new job involved dressing in black and taking someone's car in the middle of the night, it wasn't too far off my radar screen.
When I got moved inside, I quickly realized that being a field rep was pretty easy because I usually knew where the cars were at, so all I had to do was take them.
Finding the cars proved to be a different challenge.
Each collector had a group of dealerships they represented -meaning that everyone who financed a car for that dealership was in my queue. Fortunately, 90% of the people paid as agreed and I never had to pull their files out of the drawer. Of the 10% who didn't, we usually got that down to between a quarter and a half a percent by their 30th day of delinquency. The month before I got promoted to be a collection supervisor, I kept my queue at zero delinquency for thirty straight days. It was a big deal to "Zero Out" for the day, meaning that no one in your queue with that due date went over thirty days late on that day. Doing it for a few days in a row was hard work, but once I'd developed a plan to identify my riskiest accounts, it really wasn't that big a deal to "Zero out" every day.
Identifying the risk of your queue as a collector is the name of the game.
My territory was Reno, and my "more challenging" customers were involved in the gaming and prostitution industries. I knew some of them from when I was a field rep working their accounts and collecting their payments in the field. Our field reps were like a pick up service. The collector didn't accept a promise to pay, they made an arrangement to have the customers payment picked up. By knowing my customers, I knew who would push me to the 29th day, so I started collecting their accounts when I received their last months payment. Besides being a collector, I was on a first name basis with my regular customers and many times I would have to dig deep into their financial situation to make sure I would get my payment each month.
Nowadays, I think most collectors know their customers about as well as we know the skip accounts we are assigned; not at all, or at least not on a monthly "Hi, how ya doin Mike, hows the job going? Did your daughter have her baby? BTW, when do you think you can get that payment to me as I noticed I didn't get your check as we agreed I would last week".
When field reps were eliminated in the mid 80s, controlling delinquency became more challenging. In the late 80s, when the personal touch went by the wayside to computers, growth, sub prime financing and collectors changing jobs like pro athletes changing teams, it suddenly became more challenging to collect car payments. Using skip tracing companies was almost unheard of when I started SKIPBUSTERS out of my apartment in San Gabriel with my wife in 1988. Now, its becoming a more common tool as collection departments identify risk and realize they need help in resolving the more difficult accounts they have not made progress on.
Identifying Risk. It's still the key to understanding, managing and controlling a queue, a portfolio, or even when broken down to one account. In fact, it should be broken down to one account.
These days, when a customer goes delinquent and you can't find them, you have a number of on line resources you can chose from to develop leads to call to locate your customer. Unfortunately, this information is not perfect, and what's even more unfortunate, is that many collectors will run a credit bureau or a public records report and they'll see an address they didn't have, and without verifying if its good or not, they'll "Shotgun" it out to a repo agency to have them check the address. What's worse is some inexperienced collectors will send out multiple addresses to the repo agent, making their job more difficult because it costs money to check all these addresses. To further complicate the problem, when the car doesn't show, then they'll ask the agent to "Kick it in", make contact, or more directly, do the skip tracing the finance company should be doing on the phone, or hiring someone to do if they are not capable of doing it, or don't have the time or resources to do it themselves.
They've identified the risk, but they've tried to resolve it with a step that delays the job that needs to be done, rolling up your sleeves and finding the customer, and the collateral. I think the main reason they do this is because they don't know how to really skip trace, or they are so overwhelmed with volume that they don't have the time. I also know first hand that while many of the tools available to find the leads are helpful, the sheer volume of this information can also be overwhelming, causing it to not be used properly for its ultimate purpose, to find the lost customer and the collateral.
Risk on an auto loan is identified by a variety of factors:
Balance of the loan
Perceived value of the collateral
Age of the loan
Payment history
Credit History and a sudden change
Employment
Demographics
The quantity and quality of all available leads that can be used to skip trace
Once you identify the risk of an account, you must allow that file the time it needs to be worked to be resolved in a positive manner. It always amazed me that a company would charge off millions or billions in full balance skip charge off losses, but when it came time to drill down and see how they could reduce losses, the obvious solutions seemed to go by the wayside.
A good skip tracing company can give you an outside benchmark to where your staff is in terms of your ROI with each employee. Let me give you an example. After you throw in facility fees, employee benefits and misc. overhead, lets say your cost per collector hour worked is $35. I think this is a pretty low number when you really add everything in, but we'll go with it. Then lets say that collector is working a queue of 100 charged off accounts at an average charge off rate of $18K, for a total queue size, in dollars, of $1.8m. Lets say they locate and recover 25% of their files each month, and the average car they recover brings in $10K at auction. You just spent $6066 in wages to recover $250K. Not a bad ROI.
If you gave a skip trace company a like group of 100 files and your cost to them was an average locate fee of $400, if they got you the same 25%, then your cost would $10K, which is not a good deal for you if both sides get you 25%. Now lets say the skip company gets you 35%. Your cost would increase to $14K, but your recoveries would increase by an extra 10 cars, or $100K if your getting $10K per car at auction. Now you've spent $14K to recover $350K, versus doing it in house at $6066 to recover $250K. You also don't have the burden of the extra employee, and you made an extra $92K. If the skip company can get you 40% or better, then you are really ahead of the game.
Besides the numbers, what you've also gained is an invaluable resource, a work in progress monthly benchmarking challenge to your staff to raise the bar. By collaborating with your skip vendor through regular meetings and constant communication and measurement of the numbers, down to a granular level, you now can forge ahead with a relationship with your skip vendor to improve your numbers and theirs, making it a win-win for both sides.
and when I was hired to
I think most decent skip tracers have.
I didn't realize it until I was 21 years old and working for Chrysler Credit as a collector.
I'd been hired as a field rep, but that type of work was closer to the shenanigans I used to pull as a kid growing up in the suburbs of Chicago. I never stole a car or anything like that, but my buddies and I were pretty mischievous and we did some crazy things when we did sleep outs in the summer. When I realized that my new job involved dressing in black and taking someone's car in the middle of the night, it wasn't too far off my radar screen.
When I got moved inside, I quickly realized that being a field rep was pretty easy because I usually knew where the cars were at, so all I had to do was take them.
Finding the cars proved to be a different challenge.
Each collector had a group of dealerships they represented -meaning that everyone who financed a car for that dealership was in my queue. Fortunately, 90% of the people paid as agreed and I never had to pull their files out of the drawer. Of the 10% who didn't, we usually got that down to between a quarter and a half a percent by their 30th day of delinquency. The month before I got promoted to be a collection supervisor, I kept my queue at zero delinquency for thirty straight days. It was a big deal to "Zero Out" for the day, meaning that no one in your queue with that due date went over thirty days late on that day. Doing it for a few days in a row was hard work, but once I'd developed a plan to identify my riskiest accounts, it really wasn't that big a deal to "Zero out" every day.
Identifying the risk of your queue as a collector is the name of the game.
My territory was Reno, and my "more challenging" customers were involved in the gaming and prostitution industries. I knew some of them from when I was a field rep working their accounts and collecting their payments in the field. Our field reps were like a pick up service. The collector didn't accept a promise to pay, they made an arrangement to have the customers payment picked up. By knowing my customers, I knew who would push me to the 29th day, so I started collecting their accounts when I received their last months payment. Besides being a collector, I was on a first name basis with my regular customers and many times I would have to dig deep into their financial situation to make sure I would get my payment each month.
Nowadays, I think most collectors know their customers about as well as we know the skip accounts we are assigned; not at all, or at least not on a monthly "Hi, how ya doin Mike, hows the job going? Did your daughter have her baby? BTW, when do you think you can get that payment to me as I noticed I didn't get your check as we agreed I would last week".
When field reps were eliminated in the mid 80s, controlling delinquency became more challenging. In the late 80s, when the personal touch went by the wayside to computers, growth, sub prime financing and collectors changing jobs like pro athletes changing teams, it suddenly became more challenging to collect car payments. Using skip tracing companies was almost unheard of when I started SKIPBUSTERS out of my apartment in San Gabriel with my wife in 1988. Now, its becoming a more common tool as collection departments identify risk and realize they need help in resolving the more difficult accounts they have not made progress on.
Identifying Risk. It's still the key to understanding, managing and controlling a queue, a portfolio, or even when broken down to one account. In fact, it should be broken down to one account.
These days, when a customer goes delinquent and you can't find them, you have a number of on line resources you can chose from to develop leads to call to locate your customer. Unfortunately, this information is not perfect, and what's even more unfortunate, is that many collectors will run a credit bureau or a public records report and they'll see an address they didn't have, and without verifying if its good or not, they'll "Shotgun" it out to a repo agency to have them check the address. What's worse is some inexperienced collectors will send out multiple addresses to the repo agent, making their job more difficult because it costs money to check all these addresses. To further complicate the problem, when the car doesn't show, then they'll ask the agent to "Kick it in", make contact, or more directly, do the skip tracing the finance company should be doing on the phone, or hiring someone to do if they are not capable of doing it, or don't have the time or resources to do it themselves.
They've identified the risk, but they've tried to resolve it with a step that delays the job that needs to be done, rolling up your sleeves and finding the customer, and the collateral. I think the main reason they do this is because they don't know how to really skip trace, or they are so overwhelmed with volume that they don't have the time. I also know first hand that while many of the tools available to find the leads are helpful, the sheer volume of this information can also be overwhelming, causing it to not be used properly for its ultimate purpose, to find the lost customer and the collateral.
Risk on an auto loan is identified by a variety of factors:
Balance of the loan
Perceived value of the collateral
Age of the loan
Payment history
Credit History and a sudden change
Employment
Demographics
The quantity and quality of all available leads that can be used to skip trace
Once you identify the risk of an account, you must allow that file the time it needs to be worked to be resolved in a positive manner. It always amazed me that a company would charge off millions or billions in full balance skip charge off losses, but when it came time to drill down and see how they could reduce losses, the obvious solutions seemed to go by the wayside.
A good skip tracing company can give you an outside benchmark to where your staff is in terms of your ROI with each employee. Let me give you an example. After you throw in facility fees, employee benefits and misc. overhead, lets say your cost per collector hour worked is $35. I think this is a pretty low number when you really add everything in, but we'll go with it. Then lets say that collector is working a queue of 100 charged off accounts at an average charge off rate of $18K, for a total queue size, in dollars, of $1.8m. Lets say they locate and recover 25% of their files each month, and the average car they recover brings in $10K at auction. You just spent $6066 in wages to recover $250K. Not a bad ROI.
If you gave a skip trace company a like group of 100 files and your cost to them was an average locate fee of $400, if they got you the same 25%, then your cost would $10K, which is not a good deal for you if both sides get you 25%. Now lets say the skip company gets you 35%. Your cost would increase to $14K, but your recoveries would increase by an extra 10 cars, or $100K if your getting $10K per car at auction. Now you've spent $14K to recover $350K, versus doing it in house at $6066 to recover $250K. You also don't have the burden of the extra employee, and you made an extra $92K. If the skip company can get you 40% or better, then you are really ahead of the game.
Besides the numbers, what you've also gained is an invaluable resource, a work in progress monthly benchmarking challenge to your staff to raise the bar. By collaborating with your skip vendor through regular meetings and constant communication and measurement of the numbers, down to a granular level, you now can forge ahead with a relationship with your skip vendor to improve your numbers and theirs, making it a win-win for both sides.
and when I was hired to
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Skip Tracing Preparation
Skip Tracing File Review Worksheet
The purpose of this worksheet is to show you how to prepare yourself to work a skip file.
Working a queue of files means you have to know how to get in and out of files in a hurry. You need to be quick, yet thorough, in your review of an account before you work it. This step should take no more than 5 minutes, and many times the last minute or so is done when you’re dialing the collector who gave you the assignment, and then when you are waiting for them on hold, you are looking at the last things to review. The skip tracers who multi task this way have proven to be the most effective I’ve come across.
These are the things you want to review BEFORE you make a call on a new file:
1. Client
2. R/O and COX names
3. Collateral
4. Address
5. Delinquency
6. Credit Application and Contract
7. Collection notes
8. Client contact
1. Client- who is the client. Clients operate differently, so first see who the client is and then make sure you understand how they want their accounts worked.
2. Names - Look at the name of the R/O. Is it an easy name to pronounce, do they have a nick name, an American name if they are foreign? These are things you want to determine as its much easier if you know what name your subject goes by. If someone is looking for me and they ask for Johnathon Lewis, everyone they come in contact with will be suspicious. If the subject you are looking for is named Scott Reid and he goes by Scooter, you need to find that out- so when you start working the file- ask people you come in contact with, whom you feel you have their confidence and they will tell you….“Does he have a nick name or does he go by Scott?”
3. Collateral –its important to know what you are looking for. Many clients now don’t include the color of the collateral, the license plate, and some times its difficult to know what the collateral is. The other day we had an agent running an address looking for what they thought was a Honda Jet Ski. The way we received the deal, it had a code for the type of collateral and it was a motorcycle we were looking for. We told them their update said they were looking for the wrong type of collateral, and we got the bike the next night. Go to Google and look up the unit so you can see what it looks like. When you’re calling a neighbor or asking a relative if he drives a little white car, that’s better than asking of they drive a Ford Escort. When you call the client, use that opportunity to ask them if they have a plate or a color.
4. Address – compare the address from the client to what is in the public records you have access to. If a new address pops up in public records, ask them if they had that address, and if not, tell them you’ll confirm it and let them know if its worth giving to a repo agent to run. Clients have a tendency to see a new address pop up in Public or Credit records and they just assign it for repo without verifying the address. We are professionals, and were expected to verify an address as much as possible before assigning for repo, and every assignment needs to have the reason why its being assigned to that address, which you cant do without some form of verification.
5. Delinquency- Many clients don’t provide this information, and some provide bits and pieces. Some accounts are assigned before they charge off and some are assigned after they’ve charged off. These are important things to know. When you speak to the client, if they’re a client who will share this info with you, its helpful to know the following information:
Date last paid - This is important as it tells you how long ago they paid, and many times when someone stops paying, there is a reason that’s worth investigating- did the unit get wrecked? Did they give it to a 3rd party? Did they lose a job? Foreclosure?
Date past due – This tells you how long they have been delinquent. If a person is two payments down versus five payments down, that makes a huge difference in regard to how you approach the way you work the account, and what you say if you speak with them.
Amount past due – This is important if you speak with them and they ask how much do they owe. Many times these customers have not had anyone speak with them for months as they’ve been on the lamb. If you happen to get them on the phone, you may only have one chance to resolve the account, and if you don’t know how far past due they are, in exact numbers, you lose credibility.
Monthly payment amount – This is important as they may have another payment due the following day, so its good to know how much that will be.
Balance – This gives you an idea what the difference is between the amount in full they owe (with interest) versus the actual value of the car. Many times this can have an impact on the customer’s decisions regarding the loan, and the collateral.
Charge off information - When applicable, this is critical information to know. First off, if the loan hasn’t charged off yet, but is nearing charge off, the actual charge off date is important, as that is usually the last date the customer will have an opportunity to make any payments. After a loan is charged off, loan payments are normally not accepted, which means the only payment options after charge off are to pay off the full amount of the loan, including expenses, less interest. The charge off date is also important as many files will close with the skip agency when the loans charge off, so if you are close to resolving the case, it may not matter to some clients as they have to close the file with the skip agency when it charges off.
6. Credit Application and Contract. When available, this can be very valuable. Successful Skip Tracing involves working with actual data, factual information. The credit app and contract are the two documents that were filled out on the day the customer bought the collateral, so this is when the trace starts. The app gives you valuable references, usually people the customer knows well. The numbers may have changed, but just knowing their names and an address can help you skip them down to see if they know your skips whereabouts. The credit app also tells you where the skip was living and what date, how long they were there and sometimes who their landlord is. This information is available in public records, however, many public records have distorted dates as they are only as accurate as what someone entered in a computer. This gives you a starting point, and the more recent the date of the contract the easier it is to trace their steps after they bought the car. It also gives you the customers place of employment information, and sometimes a prior job or address. There are also boxes the customer checks that ask if they’ve ever been convicted of a crime, filed BK, committed a felony, etc.. If you find out they lied on their credit app that technically means they committed a form of fraud, and is something you can use in your investigation.
The contract is the binding legal document between the finance company and the customer, and while you usually have the necessary information it contains, it sometimes can give you important information like a color, the dealership contact info, or the payment amounts. IF YOU DON’T HAVE A CREDIT APP IN THE FILE WHEN YOU REVIEW THE ACOCUNT, ASK THEM TO SEND YOU A COPY OR READ YOU THE INFORMATION FROM IT.
7. Collection notes. Unfortunately, these are not always available, and yet they are possibly the most important part of the pre file review. If you know what has transpired on an account, it’s much easier to work a file, and it can save you a lot of time. While you don’t always take the work someone else has done as the gospel, if the client assigned an account to run an address that looks interesting to you and the repo agent reports they made contact with the guy who just bought the house and he says he bought it out of foreclosure, there is no point in running that address in the field. If the client says a relative is cooperative, or not, that is helpful to determine how you approach the call to that relative, versus going in blindly.
8. Call the client to review the account - This is an important part of how you prepare to work the file. It’s a good idea to introduce yourself if you don’t already know the collector, and even if you do, a couple minutes on the phone discussing what they know about the file and what they’ve done, and asking for the information you need, can all make a big difference in your success.
The purpose of this worksheet is to show you how to prepare yourself to work a skip file.
Working a queue of files means you have to know how to get in and out of files in a hurry. You need to be quick, yet thorough, in your review of an account before you work it. This step should take no more than 5 minutes, and many times the last minute or so is done when you’re dialing the collector who gave you the assignment, and then when you are waiting for them on hold, you are looking at the last things to review. The skip tracers who multi task this way have proven to be the most effective I’ve come across.
These are the things you want to review BEFORE you make a call on a new file:
1. Client
2. R/O and COX names
3. Collateral
4. Address
5. Delinquency
6. Credit Application and Contract
7. Collection notes
8. Client contact
1. Client- who is the client. Clients operate differently, so first see who the client is and then make sure you understand how they want their accounts worked.
2. Names - Look at the name of the R/O. Is it an easy name to pronounce, do they have a nick name, an American name if they are foreign? These are things you want to determine as its much easier if you know what name your subject goes by. If someone is looking for me and they ask for Johnathon Lewis, everyone they come in contact with will be suspicious. If the subject you are looking for is named Scott Reid and he goes by Scooter, you need to find that out- so when you start working the file- ask people you come in contact with, whom you feel you have their confidence and they will tell you….“Does he have a nick name or does he go by Scott?”
3. Collateral –its important to know what you are looking for. Many clients now don’t include the color of the collateral, the license plate, and some times its difficult to know what the collateral is. The other day we had an agent running an address looking for what they thought was a Honda Jet Ski. The way we received the deal, it had a code for the type of collateral and it was a motorcycle we were looking for. We told them their update said they were looking for the wrong type of collateral, and we got the bike the next night. Go to Google and look up the unit so you can see what it looks like. When you’re calling a neighbor or asking a relative if he drives a little white car, that’s better than asking of they drive a Ford Escort. When you call the client, use that opportunity to ask them if they have a plate or a color.
4. Address – compare the address from the client to what is in the public records you have access to. If a new address pops up in public records, ask them if they had that address, and if not, tell them you’ll confirm it and let them know if its worth giving to a repo agent to run. Clients have a tendency to see a new address pop up in Public or Credit records and they just assign it for repo without verifying the address. We are professionals, and were expected to verify an address as much as possible before assigning for repo, and every assignment needs to have the reason why its being assigned to that address, which you cant do without some form of verification.
5. Delinquency- Many clients don’t provide this information, and some provide bits and pieces. Some accounts are assigned before they charge off and some are assigned after they’ve charged off. These are important things to know. When you speak to the client, if they’re a client who will share this info with you, its helpful to know the following information:
Date last paid - This is important as it tells you how long ago they paid, and many times when someone stops paying, there is a reason that’s worth investigating- did the unit get wrecked? Did they give it to a 3rd party? Did they lose a job? Foreclosure?
Date past due – This tells you how long they have been delinquent. If a person is two payments down versus five payments down, that makes a huge difference in regard to how you approach the way you work the account, and what you say if you speak with them.
Amount past due – This is important if you speak with them and they ask how much do they owe. Many times these customers have not had anyone speak with them for months as they’ve been on the lamb. If you happen to get them on the phone, you may only have one chance to resolve the account, and if you don’t know how far past due they are, in exact numbers, you lose credibility.
Monthly payment amount – This is important as they may have another payment due the following day, so its good to know how much that will be.
Balance – This gives you an idea what the difference is between the amount in full they owe (with interest) versus the actual value of the car. Many times this can have an impact on the customer’s decisions regarding the loan, and the collateral.
Charge off information - When applicable, this is critical information to know. First off, if the loan hasn’t charged off yet, but is nearing charge off, the actual charge off date is important, as that is usually the last date the customer will have an opportunity to make any payments. After a loan is charged off, loan payments are normally not accepted, which means the only payment options after charge off are to pay off the full amount of the loan, including expenses, less interest. The charge off date is also important as many files will close with the skip agency when the loans charge off, so if you are close to resolving the case, it may not matter to some clients as they have to close the file with the skip agency when it charges off.
6. Credit Application and Contract. When available, this can be very valuable. Successful Skip Tracing involves working with actual data, factual information. The credit app and contract are the two documents that were filled out on the day the customer bought the collateral, so this is when the trace starts. The app gives you valuable references, usually people the customer knows well. The numbers may have changed, but just knowing their names and an address can help you skip them down to see if they know your skips whereabouts. The credit app also tells you where the skip was living and what date, how long they were there and sometimes who their landlord is. This information is available in public records, however, many public records have distorted dates as they are only as accurate as what someone entered in a computer. This gives you a starting point, and the more recent the date of the contract the easier it is to trace their steps after they bought the car. It also gives you the customers place of employment information, and sometimes a prior job or address. There are also boxes the customer checks that ask if they’ve ever been convicted of a crime, filed BK, committed a felony, etc.. If you find out they lied on their credit app that technically means they committed a form of fraud, and is something you can use in your investigation.
The contract is the binding legal document between the finance company and the customer, and while you usually have the necessary information it contains, it sometimes can give you important information like a color, the dealership contact info, or the payment amounts. IF YOU DON’T HAVE A CREDIT APP IN THE FILE WHEN YOU REVIEW THE ACOCUNT, ASK THEM TO SEND YOU A COPY OR READ YOU THE INFORMATION FROM IT.
7. Collection notes. Unfortunately, these are not always available, and yet they are possibly the most important part of the pre file review. If you know what has transpired on an account, it’s much easier to work a file, and it can save you a lot of time. While you don’t always take the work someone else has done as the gospel, if the client assigned an account to run an address that looks interesting to you and the repo agent reports they made contact with the guy who just bought the house and he says he bought it out of foreclosure, there is no point in running that address in the field. If the client says a relative is cooperative, or not, that is helpful to determine how you approach the call to that relative, versus going in blindly.
8. Call the client to review the account - This is an important part of how you prepare to work the file. It’s a good idea to introduce yourself if you don’t already know the collector, and even if you do, a couple minutes on the phone discussing what they know about the file and what they’ve done, and asking for the information you need, can all make a big difference in your success.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
WSJ Page 1 article Dec 6, 2007 "Surge in Auto-Loan Delinquencies.."
From the front page of today's Wall Street Journal... Subprime average delinquency on 2006 loans hits 12% in Sept 2007, up from 11% in Aug 07, and Prime DQ goes from 2.9% to 4.5% from Aug 2007 to Sept 2007 - those are some pretty sharp increases.
Here is the article:
Surge in Auto-Loan Delinquencies
Is Latest Trouble for the Economy
By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
December 6, 2007; Page A1
First came housing loans and the subprime-mortgage crisis.
Now, signs of stress are creeping into another key consumer area: auto loans.
Delinquencies in the auto-loan market are ticking up to their highest level in several years. Lenders are tightening terms in some cases, and interest rates have risen from the rock-bottom levels of a few years ago. About $575 billion in loans for new and used cars are made annually, according to the National Automotive Finance Association.
About 4.5% of auto loans made in 2006 to top-rated borrowers were at least 30 days delinquent as of the end of September, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to a Lehman Brothers survey of companies servicing these loans. That is the biggest one-month jump in at least eight years. Lehman says 12% of subprime borrowers, who have poorer credit records, were delinquent on their 2006 auto loans as of September. That is the highest level since 2002 and up from 11.1% the previous month.
"The numbers will get worse for auto loans," says Dan Castro of GSC Group, a New York firm that runs debt-related investment funds. "We're starting to see signs of rising losses, and delinquencies are creeping up."
Few in the auto-loan industry see the strain as the kind of disaster-in-the-making that home mortgages have become. Still, there is a connection between the two categories, since the squeeze on some home borrowers may make it harder to carry car loans. The trouble signs in auto loans suggest that the credit woes could be spreading to the broader economy, a development that has been worrying investors and policy makers in Washington.
Other corners of the credit market are also sending troublesome signals. Shares of First Marblehead Corp., which packages student loans into securities, dropped to a two-year low yesterday after an analyst cut his rating on the stock and Moody's Investors Service threatened to downgrade some of its securities, also because of delinquency concerns.
Car loans differ from home loans in one crucial way. During 2004-06, many home loans were made to speculators on the assumption that the underlying asset -- the home -- was sure to keep rising in value. Many people, inspired by fervor in the market, took out home loans that in retrospect they had little hope of paying back.
By contrast, everyone understands that the car behind a car loan is an asset destined to lose value. The typical delinquent borrower in a car loan isn't a speculator but someone who became unable to make what previously seemed like a manageable payment. That is why car delinquencies are closely linked to the health of the economy.
"Auto-loan defaults tend to be event-driven, like a job loss or an unexpected health-care bill or a divorce," says Dan Berce, chief executive of AmeriCredit Corp., one of the country's largest subprime auto lenders. "We watch quite closely economic indicators like unemployment rate, weekly job claims or hours worked."
In the second quarter, borrowers were at least 30 days behind on 2.77% of all auto loans made by nonbank lenders, the main players in the market, according to the American Bankers Association. That was the highest delinquency rate since 1991.
Many auto loans undergo the same Wall Street financial engineering as the mortgage loans that stand at the center of the credit crisis, making this a potential issue for investors. Auto loans often are bundled together into securities, sliced and diced into pieces with varying levels of risk and return, and sold to investors around the world.
In 2006, $89 billion of auto loans were packaged into asset-backed securities and sold to investors, according to Standard & Poor's, making it the biggest asset class for such securities next to mortgages and credit cards. That tally doesn't include certain other types of securities backed by car loans. The market is now slowing. Deutsche Bank estimates such bundling was down to $69 billion during the first 11 months of this year, a 19% drop from the same period last year.
Borrower problems also could deal a blow to the already-struggling auto industry. Auto sales held up during the 2001 recession in part because lenders were able to offer easy borrowing terms. If lenders tighten terms in response to the delinquencies, it would make it harder for some people to buy cars.
U.S. auto sales are down about 2.5% this year, and the auto industry is bracing for sales to decline further in 2008. Interest rates on auto loans have increased to nearly 8% from about 6.5% in late 2004, according to J.D. Power & Associates.
The auto-loan-delinquency problem is somewhat less severe for two lenders associated with the top two U.S. car makers -- Ford Motor Co.'s Ford Credit, and GMAC Financial Services, which is 49%-owned by General Motors Corp. That is because Ford Credit and GMAC don't handle many subprime loans.
GMAC Treasurer David Walker said auto-loan delinquencies in the third quarter were the highest in at least three years, partly because of economic factors, but he said credit losses are still well within historical levels. Separately, GMAC is struggling with the fallout of the subprime-mortgage crisis because one of its units was a big home lender.
AmeriCredit, of Fort Worth, Texas, is also experiencing stress. The company makes about 500,000 new- and used-auto loans a year, valued at about $9 billion, some of which get sold to investors.
In the quarter ending Sept. 30, AmeriCredit reported net income of $61.8 million, down from $74.2 million for the period a year ago. It also lowered fiscal-2008 profit projections, blaming poorer-performing 2006 auto loans. AmeriCredit shares traded at $10.32 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday, down 18 cents from the day before and 59% lower for the year to date.
There are reasons to believe the problems in auto loans won't reach crisis levels. Auto lenders and credit counselors say many consumers see their cars as a necessity and would sooner hand back the keys to a home and look for a rental than default on a car loan.
Auto lenders and dealers note that the monthly payment on a car is smaller than a mortgage payment. Most auto loans carry fixed interest rates, unlike subprime mortgages, which often reset to a higher rate after an introductory "teaser" period of two or three years.
Still, auto loans, like home loans, saw credit standards loosen in 2005 and 2006. CarMax Inc., of Richmond, Va., the largest used-car retailer in the country, said at the end of 2005 it lowered lending standards. For example, it allowed consumers to put down less money to buy more expensive vehicles. Car Max made about 140,000 car loans last year.
"We had been too strict and wanted to make more loans and maximize profitability. We expected our delinquencies and losses would go up, but they are up higher than we thought," said Katharine Kenny, head of investor relations at CarMax.
Some subprime auto lenders, such as Capital One Financial Corp., say they are seeing higher risks in parts of the country where home prices are falling the hardest, such as California and Florida. Lenders say rising delinquencies are also tied to higher fuel prices and slowing job growth.
Mr. Berce said rising delinquency rates prompted AmeriCredit to tighten its lending standards early this year and it will reassess the matter next month. It is now demanding that borrowers put down more cash against the value of the cars they are buying, especially among consumers with lower credit scores. Mr. Berce said this tightening of standards could reduce lending volume by about 10%.
--John D. Stoll contributed to this article.
Write to Jeffrey McCracken at jeff.mccracken@wsj.com and Gregory Zuckerman at gregory.zuckerman@wsj.com
Here is the article:
Surge in Auto-Loan Delinquencies
Is Latest Trouble for the Economy
By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
December 6, 2007; Page A1
First came housing loans and the subprime-mortgage crisis.
Now, signs of stress are creeping into another key consumer area: auto loans.
Delinquencies in the auto-loan market are ticking up to their highest level in several years. Lenders are tightening terms in some cases, and interest rates have risen from the rock-bottom levels of a few years ago. About $575 billion in loans for new and used cars are made annually, according to the National Automotive Finance Association.
About 4.5% of auto loans made in 2006 to top-rated borrowers were at least 30 days delinquent as of the end of September, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to a Lehman Brothers survey of companies servicing these loans. That is the biggest one-month jump in at least eight years. Lehman says 12% of subprime borrowers, who have poorer credit records, were delinquent on their 2006 auto loans as of September. That is the highest level since 2002 and up from 11.1% the previous month.
"The numbers will get worse for auto loans," says Dan Castro of GSC Group, a New York firm that runs debt-related investment funds. "We're starting to see signs of rising losses, and delinquencies are creeping up."
Few in the auto-loan industry see the strain as the kind of disaster-in-the-making that home mortgages have become. Still, there is a connection between the two categories, since the squeeze on some home borrowers may make it harder to carry car loans. The trouble signs in auto loans suggest that the credit woes could be spreading to the broader economy, a development that has been worrying investors and policy makers in Washington.
Other corners of the credit market are also sending troublesome signals. Shares of First Marblehead Corp., which packages student loans into securities, dropped to a two-year low yesterday after an analyst cut his rating on the stock and Moody's Investors Service threatened to downgrade some of its securities, also because of delinquency concerns.
Car loans differ from home loans in one crucial way. During 2004-06, many home loans were made to speculators on the assumption that the underlying asset -- the home -- was sure to keep rising in value. Many people, inspired by fervor in the market, took out home loans that in retrospect they had little hope of paying back.
By contrast, everyone understands that the car behind a car loan is an asset destined to lose value. The typical delinquent borrower in a car loan isn't a speculator but someone who became unable to make what previously seemed like a manageable payment. That is why car delinquencies are closely linked to the health of the economy.
"Auto-loan defaults tend to be event-driven, like a job loss or an unexpected health-care bill or a divorce," says Dan Berce, chief executive of AmeriCredit Corp., one of the country's largest subprime auto lenders. "We watch quite closely economic indicators like unemployment rate, weekly job claims or hours worked."
In the second quarter, borrowers were at least 30 days behind on 2.77% of all auto loans made by nonbank lenders, the main players in the market, according to the American Bankers Association. That was the highest delinquency rate since 1991.
Many auto loans undergo the same Wall Street financial engineering as the mortgage loans that stand at the center of the credit crisis, making this a potential issue for investors. Auto loans often are bundled together into securities, sliced and diced into pieces with varying levels of risk and return, and sold to investors around the world.
In 2006, $89 billion of auto loans were packaged into asset-backed securities and sold to investors, according to Standard & Poor's, making it the biggest asset class for such securities next to mortgages and credit cards. That tally doesn't include certain other types of securities backed by car loans. The market is now slowing. Deutsche Bank estimates such bundling was down to $69 billion during the first 11 months of this year, a 19% drop from the same period last year.
Borrower problems also could deal a blow to the already-struggling auto industry. Auto sales held up during the 2001 recession in part because lenders were able to offer easy borrowing terms. If lenders tighten terms in response to the delinquencies, it would make it harder for some people to buy cars.
U.S. auto sales are down about 2.5% this year, and the auto industry is bracing for sales to decline further in 2008. Interest rates on auto loans have increased to nearly 8% from about 6.5% in late 2004, according to J.D. Power & Associates.
The auto-loan-delinquency problem is somewhat less severe for two lenders associated with the top two U.S. car makers -- Ford Motor Co.'s Ford Credit, and GMAC Financial Services, which is 49%-owned by General Motors Corp. That is because Ford Credit and GMAC don't handle many subprime loans.
GMAC Treasurer David Walker said auto-loan delinquencies in the third quarter were the highest in at least three years, partly because of economic factors, but he said credit losses are still well within historical levels. Separately, GMAC is struggling with the fallout of the subprime-mortgage crisis because one of its units was a big home lender.
AmeriCredit, of Fort Worth, Texas, is also experiencing stress. The company makes about 500,000 new- and used-auto loans a year, valued at about $9 billion, some of which get sold to investors.
In the quarter ending Sept. 30, AmeriCredit reported net income of $61.8 million, down from $74.2 million for the period a year ago. It also lowered fiscal-2008 profit projections, blaming poorer-performing 2006 auto loans. AmeriCredit shares traded at $10.32 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday, down 18 cents from the day before and 59% lower for the year to date.
There are reasons to believe the problems in auto loans won't reach crisis levels. Auto lenders and credit counselors say many consumers see their cars as a necessity and would sooner hand back the keys to a home and look for a rental than default on a car loan.
Auto lenders and dealers note that the monthly payment on a car is smaller than a mortgage payment. Most auto loans carry fixed interest rates, unlike subprime mortgages, which often reset to a higher rate after an introductory "teaser" period of two or three years.
Still, auto loans, like home loans, saw credit standards loosen in 2005 and 2006. CarMax Inc., of Richmond, Va., the largest used-car retailer in the country, said at the end of 2005 it lowered lending standards. For example, it allowed consumers to put down less money to buy more expensive vehicles. Car Max made about 140,000 car loans last year.
"We had been too strict and wanted to make more loans and maximize profitability. We expected our delinquencies and losses would go up, but they are up higher than we thought," said Katharine Kenny, head of investor relations at CarMax.
Some subprime auto lenders, such as Capital One Financial Corp., say they are seeing higher risks in parts of the country where home prices are falling the hardest, such as California and Florida. Lenders say rising delinquencies are also tied to higher fuel prices and slowing job growth.
Mr. Berce said rising delinquency rates prompted AmeriCredit to tighten its lending standards early this year and it will reassess the matter next month. It is now demanding that borrowers put down more cash against the value of the cars they are buying, especially among consumers with lower credit scores. Mr. Berce said this tightening of standards could reduce lending volume by about 10%.
--John D. Stoll contributed to this article.
Write to Jeffrey McCracken at jeff.mccracken@wsj.com and Gregory Zuckerman at gregory.zuckerman@wsj.com
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Skip Tracing Leads and Information
There are so many ways to develop leads on finding people these days that it literally requires staffing an in-house data analyst. If used properly, the leads and information available can be a tremendous help in managing your business needs, especially when it comes to Risk Analysis.
The other day we got in a new deal on a guy who lived in Riverside, CA. When we pulled a public record report on him it showed he had a pending legal case. My Tracer went to a web site called Black Book on line, and through a link from that site, she found out he was in court all week, standing trial for the offense that was reported on his public record database document. We signed the deal out to a repo company and by the time that guy needed to go to lunch when the judge called for a break in the case, he also needed a ride because we had taken his from a surrounding parking lot near the court house. The Black Book on line site was free, and that example is one of the reasons why I've been so intrigued at getting back into the skip tracing business.
Skiptracing in today's world in comparison to how it used to be in the 80's when I first started is like the difference between Night and Day. In terms of available leads, it's almost as if we were blindfolded with our hands tied behind our backs when we had to find new leads in comparison to the data available today via the internet.
In the old days we relied on huge, outdated Criss Cross books, old microfische property records, Dozens of yellow page directories you had your friends and relatives collect from wherever they were going on vacation, and a number of other stale sources of information. The credit application, if properly filled out with some good, legible references, was worth it's weight in gold.
Skip tracing has always been all about finding people who know the person you are looking for. These people are "leads", and the more leads you have, the better shot you have at finding the person you are looking for.
In today's world, there are more leads than most skip tracers know what to do with in most cases. It's almost data overload when you pull some of the available reports, which is why you need a data analyst.
On the down side, the debtors and skips also are working with more knowledge, more information at their fingertips. They are smarter, craftier, so in a way it has balanced itself out. We worked a guy earlier this year who used his real name to go in and buy a million dollars worth of collateral over a two week period, which he did with his 770 FICO score and because he showed a long term, high paying job and he was a homeowner. On the surface, it looked like identity theft. Once you dug down a level, you could see the house had been flipped between he and his relatives multiple times over the past several years, depending on who needed it for their scam. The job appeared legit, but it was a business in foreclosure by the property landlord and the Franchise Tax Board. The business address also contained 26 different shell companies using 53 different spellings he had used for one scam or another, and all of these things didn't leap out to the people approving his loans based on his 770 Gold Balls FICO score.
So, as you can see, there are many sources of leads and information, but what really matters is how you use these tools to improve your specific business needs.
The other day we got in a new deal on a guy who lived in Riverside, CA. When we pulled a public record report on him it showed he had a pending legal case. My Tracer went to a web site called Black Book on line, and through a link from that site, she found out he was in court all week, standing trial for the offense that was reported on his public record database document. We signed the deal out to a repo company and by the time that guy needed to go to lunch when the judge called for a break in the case, he also needed a ride because we had taken his from a surrounding parking lot near the court house. The Black Book on line site was free, and that example is one of the reasons why I've been so intrigued at getting back into the skip tracing business.
Skiptracing in today's world in comparison to how it used to be in the 80's when I first started is like the difference between Night and Day. In terms of available leads, it's almost as if we were blindfolded with our hands tied behind our backs when we had to find new leads in comparison to the data available today via the internet.
In the old days we relied on huge, outdated Criss Cross books, old microfische property records, Dozens of yellow page directories you had your friends and relatives collect from wherever they were going on vacation, and a number of other stale sources of information. The credit application, if properly filled out with some good, legible references, was worth it's weight in gold.
Skip tracing has always been all about finding people who know the person you are looking for. These people are "leads", and the more leads you have, the better shot you have at finding the person you are looking for.
In today's world, there are more leads than most skip tracers know what to do with in most cases. It's almost data overload when you pull some of the available reports, which is why you need a data analyst.
On the down side, the debtors and skips also are working with more knowledge, more information at their fingertips. They are smarter, craftier, so in a way it has balanced itself out. We worked a guy earlier this year who used his real name to go in and buy a million dollars worth of collateral over a two week period, which he did with his 770 FICO score and because he showed a long term, high paying job and he was a homeowner. On the surface, it looked like identity theft. Once you dug down a level, you could see the house had been flipped between he and his relatives multiple times over the past several years, depending on who needed it for their scam. The job appeared legit, but it was a business in foreclosure by the property landlord and the Franchise Tax Board. The business address also contained 26 different shell companies using 53 different spellings he had used for one scam or another, and all of these things didn't leap out to the people approving his loans based on his 770 Gold Balls FICO score.
So, as you can see, there are many sources of leads and information, but what really matters is how you use these tools to improve your specific business needs.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Sub-Prime Mortgage problem sounds a lot like prior Sub-Prime Auto Finance problems from the 90s.
“WHAT WERE THEY SMOKING?”
My buddy is a real estate investor. When I asked him the other day “how’s business”, I was very interested in his take on the situation. Like everyone else, I’ve heard all the bad news about the Sub-Prime mortgage industry. Freddie Mac down two billion for the quarter. Moody’s estimates 1.7 million homes will be lost to foreclosure in 07-08, double the prior two year total, and a conservative number to many. Citigroup CEO resigns after a ten billion dollar write down, Merrill Lynch loses eight billion, and it’s CEO.
What I didn’t know was exactly how this happened, or more importantly, when it would hit rock bottom. I figured my buddy could clue me in, and in doing so, I believe he hit the nail on the head. Several times during his analysis he used the term “Reset Rate”. I knew a reset was the point when a loan resets to a different interest rate, usually a higher one. What I didn’t know was that there was a mechanism in place to track this number. I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised, because I’ve learned during the start-up phase of Find John Doe that almost everything can be tracked.
His business, like mine, is directly tied to the Sub-Prime mortgage fall-out. When he told me the high water mark for resets will happen this March, when One Hundred and Ten Billion Dollars in mortgage paper will reset, he caught my attention. When he told me the high months in 2007 were September and December at fifty eight billion each, and when he further explained that the first six months of 2008 will reset at an amount that’s almost equal to what will have reset in all of 2007, I got my answer. We’re in big trouble, again.
I say again because while we were talking, I started to realize that this was sounding way too familiar. I’ve been in the auto finance industry since 1982, and in 1999, I was a small player in the clean up of the Sub-Prime auto financing carnage. Not many people outside our industry even knew of our woe’s back then, mainly because our troubles happened at the same time Internet 1.0 started to implode, and mostly because we’re talking about car loans, not home loans.
I’ll never forget when a client of mine explained Sub-Prime auto financing to me back in the mid 90s. At first, it didn’t sound much different than what some of the mouse-house finance companies you see in rural strip malls were already doing, charging highway robbery interest rates to try and cover their butts in case a large percentage of the deadbeats they put on the road couldn’t make their payments. My client further explained that due to the popularity of credit scoring and better credit reporting methods, there were more people that needed second-chance financing than all the mouse-houses could handle. Then he mentioned a word I’d never really heard associated with auto financing; Wall Street.
Back in those days, my wife and I owned a medium sized repossession business that paid the bills and kept us busy running a business that really needs a screenplay written about its idiosyncrasies to fully explain what goes on behind the scenes in one of America’s more interesting industries, but I digress.
When my client explained how Wall Street investors were looking to purchase large, securitized pools of auto loans, I asked him a simple question; who is going to find the people who skip, and who is going to repossess their cars? He smiled knowingly, and within a couple years my wife and I grew our business into the largest repossession company in the country. What happened was actually pretty straight forward. I quickly realized that these Wall Street investors needed to hire a servicing company to work all these loans they’d purchased, so I started looking around to see who these servicer’s were. Suprisingly, there weren’t many. When we located the one’s who were getting into this during the infancy of Sub-Prime servicing, we soon realized that the one’s servicing the loans were struggling with a process that many lenders have struggled with for years; skip-tracing and repossession.
I’d been hired by Chrysler Credit back in 1982 as a field rep, which was a corporate way of saying repo man. After five years at Chrysler and a year at Mitsubishi’s start up financial arm, I branched out into the private sector to manage two small Los Angeles repossession companies. My wife and I then started a skip tracing company in 1989, and after a few cocktails we named it after a film we’d just seen; Skipbusters. When the Sub-Prime wave began to hit around 1995, Skipbusters started to get really busy, especially after the delays in collection activity that should have taken place on these loans, but didn’t, because each loan had now changed hands from originator, to Wall Street investor, to servicer, in a relatively short period of time. Within a year we had contracted with a nationwide network of what we considered to be the ‘best of the best’ repossession companies in the country, and we were locating and they were popping hundreds of cars every day.
It was during this time that one of the largest servicers came to us with a problem. They were having trouble finding the best repossession companies to do their work on their “normal” repossession assignments. Anyone who has ever been associated with repossession knows the word “normal” is not in our vocabulary. Anyway, they wanted to know if we would manage their repossession process for them. We did some research and quickly determined that no one in the country was doing this type of work. Manheim Auctions had tried it a few years back, and when I called and discussed their experiences with the person who managed this process for them, they suggested I don’t attempt it as it “blew up in our faces”.
We then polled the repossession companies we were sending work to through Skipbusters, and everyone said they were up for more volume, so we formed a company called American Recovery Service. We started by managing the repossession process for many Wall Street investors, and then we branched into doing work for mainstream companies like VW credit, General Electric Capital, and other more traditional lenders. Within two years, our business doubled and then tripled, and we were handling a then industry record fifty thousand assignments for repossession a year. In March of 1999, after too many eighteen hour days and with two kids who didn’t know their parents well enough, we sold our companies to a large auto transport and towing company that expressed a desire to get into the repossession industry. We were the sixty-sixth and last acquisition this company did, but unfortunately, most of the promises they made were never kept.
In hindsight, the promises weren’t kept for three reasons. First off, our main customers, the Wall Street investors, were starting to really take some huge losses. Many were going out of business, and that started to affect our business right after we sold the company. Secondly, the Internet bubble was starting to burst, and that was carrying over into many industries, including ours. The third reason is one that I now see as the biggest reason back then, and the biggest reason now, given the current trouble the Sub-Prime mortgage industry faces. It’s a reason that is as old as time; Greed. When I started to see the house of cards the company who bought mine was built around, I resigned and left the auto finance industry after a twenty-year career.
As I now look back on those times, I can see how greed played an important role in the creation of the Sub-Prime auto industry mess. When my buddy was explaining the current woe’s of the Sub-Prime mortgage industry, I quickly connected the dots and realized that greed must have played a role in how we got into the current situation we are in. It was then I recalled seeing the cover of this week’s Fortune magazine sitting on my nightstand, an issue I’d yet to read. I remembered the cover saying “WHAT WERE THEY SMOKING?” and it showed the faces of four recent CEO’s who resigned their positions amidst the looming crisis. When I got home after talking to my buddy, I read the accompanying article. It went on to detail the billions in losses and write downs major corporations are now having to record when they try and assess the value of these high risk mortgage loans they still carry on their books, “and no one seems to have any idea what they’re worth”, the article goes on to say.
So, when my buddy told me “We’re waiting for the reset to hit the high water mark, and then we’ll see what the fall-out is”, I now realized exactly what he was on to. The problem is caused when the reset amount is more than the person can afford to pay, and it’s compounded when there is no equity in their home because the bottom has fallen out of the housing market. The equity they thought they would have in place to allow them to refinance their loan is not there, i.e. no one will make a $300K loan on a home now worth only $270K, especially when it appears $270K may be $250K in a few months.
The Sub-Prime mortgage problem was caused by a number of factors. For starters, lenders gave brokers too much flexibility in lending qualifications, making it difficult for the lenders to properly assess the risk of each loan. Not that anyone cared, because they all were riding the wave and making money hand over fist, but it was the first breakdown of the most common of all lending practices; qualification. The next factor was the poor structuring of loan products by investment banks. The popular adjustable rate loans in 2005 and 2006 looked great to the rookie investor jumping on the house flipping bandwagon, or even more sadly, to the first time homeowner who was sold a bill of goods they ultimately never could pay. These loans, which are now the one’s that are resetting at record rates and causing the largest impact in the current blood-bath, did not offer lenders or their customers many options when we saw a 200 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates and the sharp decline of new home sales and dropping sales prices. “If the home goes up just half the amount it’s gone up in the past two years, you’ll have more than enough equity to refinance it at a reasonable rate before your balloon is due”. Those are some famous last words many people heard as they signed up for a loan that would eventually become a foreclosure.
So when will it hit rock bottom? My buddy said they’re expecting the fall-out from the first four months of ’08 to hit hard in Q2 and Q3, “because it takes a while after the reset for the foreclosure process to run it’s course”, he said. I agreed, and then I started to wonder how this will carry over into other industries, especially the one I have now jumped back into after a six year absence, auto finance.
When you take a closer look at the number of these loans due to reset in 2008, and the scary similarities to the Sub-Prime Auto Loan problems we witnessed first hand back in 1999, I believe you will agree that the problem looks like it will get worse before it gets better, and statistics are starting to show this problem is starting to carry over into other financial sectors.
An article in the Columbus Dispatch titled “Car sales are the latest Sub Prime casualty” recently stated, ”Payments on 2.73 percent of auto loans made through car dealerships were at least 30 days past due in the first quarter of 2007, a 10-year high, the American Bankers Association said.
Called indirect loans, this type of financing accounted for about 75 percent of all car loans in 2006, said research firm J.D. Power and Associates.”
Tom Krisher wrote, in an article from this past Monday titled “Analysts worry that mortgage troubles could spread to auto loans ”Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson said his analysis of auto loan-backed securities sold by Ford Motor Credit Co. and GMAC Financial Services showed some higher delinquency rates for October and September compared with recent years.”
Experience also tells me that the finance companies that go into 2008 prepared to handle the worst will come out of this much better than those who go in with blinders on, unprepared.
My suggestion to the finance companies is to find a way to recognize a problem before the problem finds you. Identify your high-risk accounts, especially those directly affected by the Sub-Prime mortgage fallout. Update your vendor lists, make sure you have the help in place to handle the storm when it hits, i.e. solid repossession companies and reputable skip tracing companies who have been tested through a champion v challenger program in the larger metropolitan and higher volume areas. Make sure you have a plan in place to see the signs of trouble, and work your early stage accounts harder than ever when those signs show a problem starting to happen. With the tools we now have available at our disposal, this process has never been more efficient, but if you don’t free up and devote your management and IT resources toward looking into the future, you may find yourself wishing you had done that a year from now.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21887610/
http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts_va.aspx?EditionID=564
http://jec.senate.gov/Releases/10.04.07SubprimeLeadershipEvent.html
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/11/26/101232838/index.htm?postversion=2007111212
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2007/09/02/carloans.ART_ART_09-02-07_A1_0D7PLPO.html?sid=101
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balloon_payment_mortgage
http://www.businessweek.com/autos/content/may2007/bw20070502_662106.htm?chan=autos_autos+index+page_top+stories
My buddy is a real estate investor. When I asked him the other day “how’s business”, I was very interested in his take on the situation. Like everyone else, I’ve heard all the bad news about the Sub-Prime mortgage industry. Freddie Mac down two billion for the quarter. Moody’s estimates 1.7 million homes will be lost to foreclosure in 07-08, double the prior two year total, and a conservative number to many. Citigroup CEO resigns after a ten billion dollar write down, Merrill Lynch loses eight billion, and it’s CEO.
What I didn’t know was exactly how this happened, or more importantly, when it would hit rock bottom. I figured my buddy could clue me in, and in doing so, I believe he hit the nail on the head. Several times during his analysis he used the term “Reset Rate”. I knew a reset was the point when a loan resets to a different interest rate, usually a higher one. What I didn’t know was that there was a mechanism in place to track this number. I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised, because I’ve learned during the start-up phase of Find John Doe that almost everything can be tracked.
His business, like mine, is directly tied to the Sub-Prime mortgage fall-out. When he told me the high water mark for resets will happen this March, when One Hundred and Ten Billion Dollars in mortgage paper will reset, he caught my attention. When he told me the high months in 2007 were September and December at fifty eight billion each, and when he further explained that the first six months of 2008 will reset at an amount that’s almost equal to what will have reset in all of 2007, I got my answer. We’re in big trouble, again.
I say again because while we were talking, I started to realize that this was sounding way too familiar. I’ve been in the auto finance industry since 1982, and in 1999, I was a small player in the clean up of the Sub-Prime auto financing carnage. Not many people outside our industry even knew of our woe’s back then, mainly because our troubles happened at the same time Internet 1.0 started to implode, and mostly because we’re talking about car loans, not home loans.
I’ll never forget when a client of mine explained Sub-Prime auto financing to me back in the mid 90s. At first, it didn’t sound much different than what some of the mouse-house finance companies you see in rural strip malls were already doing, charging highway robbery interest rates to try and cover their butts in case a large percentage of the deadbeats they put on the road couldn’t make their payments. My client further explained that due to the popularity of credit scoring and better credit reporting methods, there were more people that needed second-chance financing than all the mouse-houses could handle. Then he mentioned a word I’d never really heard associated with auto financing; Wall Street.
Back in those days, my wife and I owned a medium sized repossession business that paid the bills and kept us busy running a business that really needs a screenplay written about its idiosyncrasies to fully explain what goes on behind the scenes in one of America’s more interesting industries, but I digress.
When my client explained how Wall Street investors were looking to purchase large, securitized pools of auto loans, I asked him a simple question; who is going to find the people who skip, and who is going to repossess their cars? He smiled knowingly, and within a couple years my wife and I grew our business into the largest repossession company in the country. What happened was actually pretty straight forward. I quickly realized that these Wall Street investors needed to hire a servicing company to work all these loans they’d purchased, so I started looking around to see who these servicer’s were. Suprisingly, there weren’t many. When we located the one’s who were getting into this during the infancy of Sub-Prime servicing, we soon realized that the one’s servicing the loans were struggling with a process that many lenders have struggled with for years; skip-tracing and repossession.
I’d been hired by Chrysler Credit back in 1982 as a field rep, which was a corporate way of saying repo man. After five years at Chrysler and a year at Mitsubishi’s start up financial arm, I branched out into the private sector to manage two small Los Angeles repossession companies. My wife and I then started a skip tracing company in 1989, and after a few cocktails we named it after a film we’d just seen; Skipbusters. When the Sub-Prime wave began to hit around 1995, Skipbusters started to get really busy, especially after the delays in collection activity that should have taken place on these loans, but didn’t, because each loan had now changed hands from originator, to Wall Street investor, to servicer, in a relatively short period of time. Within a year we had contracted with a nationwide network of what we considered to be the ‘best of the best’ repossession companies in the country, and we were locating and they were popping hundreds of cars every day.
It was during this time that one of the largest servicers came to us with a problem. They were having trouble finding the best repossession companies to do their work on their “normal” repossession assignments. Anyone who has ever been associated with repossession knows the word “normal” is not in our vocabulary. Anyway, they wanted to know if we would manage their repossession process for them. We did some research and quickly determined that no one in the country was doing this type of work. Manheim Auctions had tried it a few years back, and when I called and discussed their experiences with the person who managed this process for them, they suggested I don’t attempt it as it “blew up in our faces”.
We then polled the repossession companies we were sending work to through Skipbusters, and everyone said they were up for more volume, so we formed a company called American Recovery Service. We started by managing the repossession process for many Wall Street investors, and then we branched into doing work for mainstream companies like VW credit, General Electric Capital, and other more traditional lenders. Within two years, our business doubled and then tripled, and we were handling a then industry record fifty thousand assignments for repossession a year. In March of 1999, after too many eighteen hour days and with two kids who didn’t know their parents well enough, we sold our companies to a large auto transport and towing company that expressed a desire to get into the repossession industry. We were the sixty-sixth and last acquisition this company did, but unfortunately, most of the promises they made were never kept.
In hindsight, the promises weren’t kept for three reasons. First off, our main customers, the Wall Street investors, were starting to really take some huge losses. Many were going out of business, and that started to affect our business right after we sold the company. Secondly, the Internet bubble was starting to burst, and that was carrying over into many industries, including ours. The third reason is one that I now see as the biggest reason back then, and the biggest reason now, given the current trouble the Sub-Prime mortgage industry faces. It’s a reason that is as old as time; Greed. When I started to see the house of cards the company who bought mine was built around, I resigned and left the auto finance industry after a twenty-year career.
As I now look back on those times, I can see how greed played an important role in the creation of the Sub-Prime auto industry mess. When my buddy was explaining the current woe’s of the Sub-Prime mortgage industry, I quickly connected the dots and realized that greed must have played a role in how we got into the current situation we are in. It was then I recalled seeing the cover of this week’s Fortune magazine sitting on my nightstand, an issue I’d yet to read. I remembered the cover saying “WHAT WERE THEY SMOKING?” and it showed the faces of four recent CEO’s who resigned their positions amidst the looming crisis. When I got home after talking to my buddy, I read the accompanying article. It went on to detail the billions in losses and write downs major corporations are now having to record when they try and assess the value of these high risk mortgage loans they still carry on their books, “and no one seems to have any idea what they’re worth”, the article goes on to say.
So, when my buddy told me “We’re waiting for the reset to hit the high water mark, and then we’ll see what the fall-out is”, I now realized exactly what he was on to. The problem is caused when the reset amount is more than the person can afford to pay, and it’s compounded when there is no equity in their home because the bottom has fallen out of the housing market. The equity they thought they would have in place to allow them to refinance their loan is not there, i.e. no one will make a $300K loan on a home now worth only $270K, especially when it appears $270K may be $250K in a few months.
The Sub-Prime mortgage problem was caused by a number of factors. For starters, lenders gave brokers too much flexibility in lending qualifications, making it difficult for the lenders to properly assess the risk of each loan. Not that anyone cared, because they all were riding the wave and making money hand over fist, but it was the first breakdown of the most common of all lending practices; qualification. The next factor was the poor structuring of loan products by investment banks. The popular adjustable rate loans in 2005 and 2006 looked great to the rookie investor jumping on the house flipping bandwagon, or even more sadly, to the first time homeowner who was sold a bill of goods they ultimately never could pay. These loans, which are now the one’s that are resetting at record rates and causing the largest impact in the current blood-bath, did not offer lenders or their customers many options when we saw a 200 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates and the sharp decline of new home sales and dropping sales prices. “If the home goes up just half the amount it’s gone up in the past two years, you’ll have more than enough equity to refinance it at a reasonable rate before your balloon is due”. Those are some famous last words many people heard as they signed up for a loan that would eventually become a foreclosure.
So when will it hit rock bottom? My buddy said they’re expecting the fall-out from the first four months of ’08 to hit hard in Q2 and Q3, “because it takes a while after the reset for the foreclosure process to run it’s course”, he said. I agreed, and then I started to wonder how this will carry over into other industries, especially the one I have now jumped back into after a six year absence, auto finance.
When you take a closer look at the number of these loans due to reset in 2008, and the scary similarities to the Sub-Prime Auto Loan problems we witnessed first hand back in 1999, I believe you will agree that the problem looks like it will get worse before it gets better, and statistics are starting to show this problem is starting to carry over into other financial sectors.
An article in the Columbus Dispatch titled “Car sales are the latest Sub Prime casualty” recently stated, ”Payments on 2.73 percent of auto loans made through car dealerships were at least 30 days past due in the first quarter of 2007, a 10-year high, the American Bankers Association said.
Called indirect loans, this type of financing accounted for about 75 percent of all car loans in 2006, said research firm J.D. Power and Associates.”
Tom Krisher wrote, in an article from this past Monday titled “Analysts worry that mortgage troubles could spread to auto loans ”Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson said his analysis of auto loan-backed securities sold by Ford Motor Credit Co. and GMAC Financial Services showed some higher delinquency rates for October and September compared with recent years.”
Experience also tells me that the finance companies that go into 2008 prepared to handle the worst will come out of this much better than those who go in with blinders on, unprepared.
My suggestion to the finance companies is to find a way to recognize a problem before the problem finds you. Identify your high-risk accounts, especially those directly affected by the Sub-Prime mortgage fallout. Update your vendor lists, make sure you have the help in place to handle the storm when it hits, i.e. solid repossession companies and reputable skip tracing companies who have been tested through a champion v challenger program in the larger metropolitan and higher volume areas. Make sure you have a plan in place to see the signs of trouble, and work your early stage accounts harder than ever when those signs show a problem starting to happen. With the tools we now have available at our disposal, this process has never been more efficient, but if you don’t free up and devote your management and IT resources toward looking into the future, you may find yourself wishing you had done that a year from now.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21887610/
http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts_va.aspx?EditionID=564
http://jec.senate.gov/Releases/10.04.07SubprimeLeadershipEvent.html
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/11/26/101232838/index.htm?postversion=2007111212
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2007/09/02/carloans.ART_ART_09-02-07_A1_0D7PLPO.html?sid=101
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balloon_payment_mortgage
http://www.businessweek.com/autos/content/may2007/bw20070502_662106.htm?chan=autos_autos+index+page_top+stories
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